Tag Archives: Yellen

Global market trends: markets in summer

Summer is usually a term quite unstable for the markets. August is a month with higher volatility as capital flows diminish and movements show bigger than they really are. This summer, markets experienced a sudden fear not related to economic or financial reasons, but political ones: the Ukraine crisis. Investors were always with an eye on this country, which is living a civil war. Behind of this war, there is a hidden power fight between Western countries and Russia, as a new edition of the old Cold War. When such kind of political tension exists, money flees. The war still exists and is far to be solved, but it seems that the market worries changed in the last weeks to other motivations: Central Banks.

Global market trends in august in T-Advisor

The World Central Banks meeting in Jackson Hole, US, some days ago, showed the different strategies that are being discussed by the monetary policy managers in their influence areas. Analysts and investors are almost sure that a rate hike will be sooner than later in the main world economy, but Mrs. Yellen is still reluctant while unemployment does not strengthen its downwards slope.

US market trend in August in T-Advisor

In Europe, on the contrary, markets are very sensible to every word that Mr. Draghi says, because it is to expect that new expansive monetary decisions will be taken. For today’s ECB meeting, analysts opt for some explanations instead of new decisions, as more details about TLTRO (a system to lend huge money amounts to banks). ECB Chairman announced in Jackson Hole that the institution is ready to act. Meanwhile, main European countries inflation and GDP figures were quite bad. This is considered as a pressure for the ECB to decide new measures.

Europe market trend in August in T-Advisor

LatAm countries are under the shadow of two crises: the eternal Argentinian debt troubles and the recession in Brazil. In the case of Brazil, analysts comment that this decrease in the GDP has to do with the post Football Worldcup effect. In any case, low prices are still attractive for investors in this area.

LatAm market trend in August in T-Advisor

In Asia, worries increase around China, as the recovery momentum slowed and opened doubts about the strength of the upward movement. However, T-Advisor global trend tool shows that the second world economy markets are sounder that some months ago, when the trend was deeply bearish.

Asia market trend in August in T-Advisor

World global trends: markets in March

An approach to global trends in March has to take into account the last US Federal Reserve meeting. Janet Yellen began her term making some changes from Bernanke’s heritage. She prefers to look more the job statistics before an increase in the interest rates. This announcement moved the market, mainly in the US.

Global markets in march

Our chart shows that 40% stocks have a bullish trend in the US, against the 36% in February. The chart below is clearer: the trend in the biggest world economy is more positive. The prices were low in February and that point attracted investors, together with the Fed outlook.

US Global Trend in T-Advisor

On the other side, emerging markets are still quite bearish. In LatAm the trend seems to improve, but the original point was so low that it will take still some time till the positions show a higher point. However, the line up appears to be solid, as it accounts a 23% against a 13% in February.

LatAm Global Trends in T-Advisor

But the more interesting development took place in Asia. Although the general trend in the continent is bearish, there is a jump in two countries to the top bullish positions: India and Indonesia. The reason lays on the elections. Both countries have elections in the beginning of April and the perspective is that new governments will be more “business-friendly” as their predecessors. The Indian and Indonesian stocks exchanges experienced in the last week a soar: more than 50% of the companies have a bullish trend.

Asia Global Trends in T-Advisor

This situation in Asia is an exception, because the other main Asian stocks are in the lowest positions: China has less than 10% bullish; Hong Kong and Japan, less than 20%; and Singapore, less that 30%.

Generally, stocks have chances to increase in the next months, as the beginning point is very low. Experts comment that April is a typical bullish month. Let’s see what we discover in four weeks.