Tag Archives: US

Global market trends: markets in the second quarter

Trends in the second quarter of the year have been dominated by the Greek crisis. After the election of left-wing party Syriza, Greece and the UE tightened the negotiations about the payment of the debt. The result is already known: Greece defaulted the IMF. The crisis is not only for the Greeks, but also for the whole European system, as one of the partners of the Euro did not follow the established rules. What will be the next? Referendum in Greece? Grexit? New elections? The future is more open than ever. We can read several articles in the media with both positions blaming the troika and the Greek government for the current situation.

Regional global trends in T-Advisor

Generally speaking, there are some differences between the market evolution in US and Asia, on one side, and Europe and Latam, on the other side. The evolution in Europe swung depending the news around Greece, what has altered a regular trend: sudden ups and downs happened when somebody came with a new statement or rumour. Above all, investors in Greece did not experience the best results, as this T-Advisor chart shows:

5-year Greek stock exchange evolution

In Latam, the troubles in the stock exchanges are linked with the strength of the dollar. These countries are very dependant from commodities and exports are being punished by the strong greenback, that rises against all currencies as the Euro weakens and the US Federal Reserve considers hiking rates.

The more positive regions are US and Asia, but the improvement in the markets has also shadows. Asia is the region where there are more alerts. The overheated Chinese stock exchange in this year has begun to fall severely. Recent measures, as a rate cut, were not enough. Shanghai has felt a 25% since the peak on June, the 12th, and the effects are still to watch.

5-year Shanghai stock exchange evolution

Finally, US plays with strong figures and the stock exchanges are counting them. However, there are still doubts about a possible rate hike, because the Federal Reserve stated that they need more evidences about the improvement of the labour market. The next job reports in US can be decisive to preview the chances of an increase of the rates, which will can move strongly all markets (stocks, debt and currencies). Well, investor, be ready, because the road has bends.

Market opportunities by T-Advisor: Yum Brands

T-Advisor, through its tool Market Opportunities, has detected the company Yum Brands, listed in NYSE, as an opportunity for investment.

These are the main figures about performances and volatility in the last years:

Yum Brands main figures in T-Advisor

The chart shows the evolution in the last year:

Yum Brands chart in T-Advisor

The technical analysis reveals also more data:

Yum Brand technical analysis in T-Advisor

Finally, the risk analysis is as follows:

Yum Brand risk analysis in T-Advisor

Yum Brands is an American fast food company created in 1997 as a spin-off from PepsiCo. It has more than 40,000 restaurants in 125 countries around the world. The company owns the brands KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell. Revenues have evolved from a proportion 80% US-20% abroad to 30% US-70% abroad. The company bets strongly for China and India as their emerging markets to develop its business. Yum Brands has 18% of its restaurants in both countries in 2014, from 11% in 2010.

Global revenues increased 1.5% in 2014 compared with the former year, till US$13,279 million. On the contrary, net profit fell 3.6% in the same period, to U$1,051 million. The share doubled its price since July 2010.

Ranking T-Advisor: Our best stocks and funds in March

What stocks and funds were the best in March? T-Advisor publishes its ranking taking into account the score. T-Advisor patented score provides an asset rating (bullish, neutral or bearish) based on key performance indicators and technical analysis.

The best shares in March were as follows:

Company Score Perf. YTD Volatility Weekly VaR Market

USA

CGI Group

10

20.79%

17.21%

-3.85%

Toronto
Int. Flavours & Fragrances

10

15.60%

16.22%

-3.39%

NYSE
AmerisourceBergen

10

15.17%

15.24%

-2.63%

NYSE
Equifax

10

13.16%

15.63%

-3.56%

NYSE
Wellpoint Inc

10

12.17%

17.52%

-2.88%

NYSE

EUROPE

Okmetic

10

38.30%

19.14%

-3.15%

Helsinki
Van de Velde NV

10

36.72%

18.55%

-1.66%

Brussels
Huhtamaki Oyj

10

31.18%

18.56%

-4.51%

Helsinki
Jensen-Group NV

10

30.40%

15.97%

-2.28%

Brussels
Merck Kgaa

10

29.43%

18.08%

-3.13%

Xetra

ASIA

Fosun International

10

24.01%

24.89%

-5.70%

Hong Kong
Q.P.Corp

10

23.32%

25.34%

-3.57%

Tokyo
Morinaga & Co

10

20.88%

23.58%

-3.66%

Tokyo
APA Group

10

20.67%

15.64%

-4.43%

Australia
Hutchison Whampoa

10

20.44%

21.18%

-4.22%

Hong Kong

LATAM

Banmedica

10

16.66%

31.36%

-4.29%

Santiago de Chile
Fomento Economico

9.84

4.20%

19.49%

-3.49%

Mexico
Empresas CMPC

9.72

4.02%

20.66%

-4.63%

Santiago de Chile
Grupo Aeroportuario Pacifico

9.67

3.92%

21.18%

-4.00%

Mexico
Luz del Sur

9.62

1.56%

14.36%

-2.70%

Lima

The best funds in March were as follows:

Fund Score Perf. YTD Volatility Weekly VaR Managing company

EQUITY FUNDS

Axa World Fund Aedificandi A Dist EUR

10

16.24%

13.07%

-2.15%

AXA
AWF F Eu RES — Shs -I- — Capitalisation

10

16.46%

13.07%

-2.14%

AXA
Allianz Europe Equity Growth AT (H2-HUF)

10

17.86%

13.45%

-3.35%

Allianz
Hend Hor Japan Smal — Shs -X2- — Capitalisation

10

5.77%

13.66%

-3.32%

Henderson
EV RV EMERGENTES GLOBAL FI

10

13.32%

14.20%

-2.98%

Popular Gestion
Franklin U.S. Opportunities Fund C

10

4.60%

15.02%

-3.53%

Franklin Templeton
M&G Inv 1 Jpn Smllr — Accum.Shs — Class -C- EUR

10

24.60%

15.12%

-3.29%

M&G Securities
CA Funds India-DC

10

8.57%

15.74%

-3.86%

Groupama
FF-INDIA FOCUS Y

10

8.08%

16.39%

-3.59%

Fidelity
DWS Deutschland

10

17.81%

19.14%

-5.07%

DWS Investment

FIXED-INCOME

Flaherty&Crumrine

9.91

7.05%

13.11%

-3.47%

BlackRock
Fidelity Funds – United Kingdom Fund A

9.90

5.64%

13.42%

-3.56%

Fidelity
Flaherty&Cr Pfd Opp

9.82

5.45%

11.01%

-3.02%

BlackRock
BlkRk MuniVest II

9.81

2.88%

8.31%

-1.62%

BlackRock
SISF Global Convertible Bond I Acc

9.80

2.97%

6.85%

-1.55%

Schroder
Nuv CreditSt-SBI

9.79

2.50%

7.20%

-1.97%

BlackRock
Pioneer Funds – US High Yield Corporate Bond I

9.79

17.37%

8.41%

-1.78%

Pioneer
SISF Glbl High Yld I Acc

9.77

2.52%

4.04%

-0.93%

Schroder
SISF Asian Convertible Bond I Acc

9.77

2.44%

4.65%

-0.93%

Schroder
CS Bond Fund Lux High Yield USD I Cap

9.76

2.69%

3.98%

-1.19%

Credit Suisse

 

Profiling investors: findings from BlackRock surveys

Picture from Investor Pulse in US by Blackrock

BlackRock is the biggest fund manager in the world. In the last years, it has conducted surveys in different countries around the world to obtain the main features from investors. If we take some of the insights, we may find several interesting figures:

  1. Cash is king. It is surprising that cash is the main asset in such proportion. For instance, 59% in LatAm, 63% in US, 51% in Asia, 58% in Spain… and 76% in Germany. In LatAm, 70% plan to add more cash in the next year. That’s quite a lot everywhere. Why investors are still reluctant to invest in other assets? This is a question that the financial and advisory branch has to discuss.
  2. Generally speaking, all are more optimistic than pessimistic about their financial future. Let’s see: 52% in US, 74% in LatAm, 64% in Asia, 54% in Germany. But it is interesting to mention that the rate is only 23% in Japan and 47% in Europe (38% in Spain). In contrast, Indians are optimistic in 81%. These figures show also opportunities. The branch has to bet for more optimistic countries to sell their products and solutions and have to work harder in more pessimistic countries trying to remove former ideas.
  3. What about retirement? Only 59% Americans are saving for it. It is to underline that the proportion is 57% of Gen X (between 37 and 49 years old) and… 60% of millennials (between 25 and 36). Surprisingly, young Americans are saving. That means that they already are target for the branch. The proportion of savers is higher in Asia: 69% average, with peaks in China (74%) and lows in Japan (42%). In LatAm, the percentage is 67%, in Germany, 65%, in Spain, 47%. There is also here a chance for advisory in these countries.
  4. And finally, what is the perception about advisers? 35% of Asians are advised in their finances with a high satisfaction. The proportion falls till 17% in LatAm (likewise very satisfied), 25% in Spain, it is also low in Germany. There is no figure for US, although it is supposed to be higher than in other countries. The chances to grow are also very relevant.

This kind of surveys is interesting to detect the general investor sentiment and find business opportunities for the advisory branch. It is also useful to open a debate about how to reach the customers and discover them the advantages of investing and planning their finances.

Note: Picture from BlackRock Investor Pulse Survey 2014. Page 12.

Global market trends: markets in October

October is generally known in the stock exchanges as an unstable month. This year was not an exception in this trend. Market trends were influenced by economic data and the ebola crisis, which hit unexpectedly some developed countries. Just to get an idea about the volatility last month: Dow Jones moved more than 1,500 points, S&P highest and lowest marks were between 200 points and Nasdaq moved more than 500 points. The debate was whether the negative trend was a correction or a real downward trend after these positive years.

Global trends in T-Advisor

The correction in US exchanges last month stopped around the second week and the markets turned again into positive. This trend was also pushed by the good third quarter GDP, which exceeded the analysts’ predictions. Another relief was that the Federal Reserve announced that interest rates would maintain the current situation despite the end of the quantitative easing policy.

Market trends in US in T-Advisor

Europe lived the worst situation, as the constitution of the new European Commission led by Mr. Juncker is taking a very long time. This is important, as the European Union has an unstable balance between common institutions and countries’ interests. On the other hand, the German machine is failing. After the fall in the second quarter, it is expected that third quarter GDP will confirm another recession (technically, two negative quarters in a row). The perfect storm took place with the economic crisis in France, the unstable political situation in Italy and the results of the bank stress test, which did not totally clear up doubts. Banks suffered a hard correction.

Europe market trends in T-Advisor

Latam main news were related again to Brazil. Socialist candidate Marina Silva, who was expected to be in the second round in the presidential election, lost this chance as socialdemocrat Aecio Neves obtained a better result to fight against President Rousseff. Finally, Rousseff gained a second term but with a very little difference (51- 49). Markets bet for Neves, with a more center-right programme, and reacted negatively after Rouseff’s victory.

Latam market trends in T-Advisor

In Asia, warning signals came again from China, as the economy is growing at a lower pace. Some figures offer many doubts about a future evolution. Crossing the sea, Japan has reacted with more Abenomics (the expansive programme organized by Prime Minister Abe). Bank of Japan will enlarge the monetary expansive programme in another attempt to move the economy of the second largest Asian giant, which lives in an eternal crisis since the 90s.

Market trends in Asia in T-Advisor

Global market trends: markets in September

If we talked last month about the effects of the crisis in Ukraine in summer, we have to talk now about more political instability in September. The war in the Middle East promoted by the group ISIS and the referendum in Scotland were to main issues (of course, not linked at all) that move the markets.

Middle East is a steady trouble hotspot. The never closed war in Irak has become more dangerous as the ISIS jihadist group has under its control a big part of the country as some part of Syria. Western countries have organized a coalition to fight it. Markets are always very frightened of this kind of crisis. On the other hand, the Scottish referendum for the independence opened an unexpected crisis as some surveys published that a majority would vote for the separation from Great Britain. At the end, calm went back to markets when the NO option won.

Global market trends in T-Advisor

In US there are many comments about the next trend in the exchanges. The rally in August, brought S&P500 to its historical peak over 2.000 points two weeks ago (Alibaba IPO helps a bit), but some investors and experts think that the next movements will be negative. In any case, our trend shows a retrace.

US market trend in T-Advisor

In Europe, Mr. Draghi has the power. ECB today’s meeting will reveal the following steps in the monetary policy management, but it seems that the ECB Chairman is determined to act with expansive monetary decisions. Germany is behind trying to avoid such idea, after the next year budget of the first European economy shows that no “bunds” will be issued in 2015. However, ECB September meeting has had an effect in currencies: euro is in the lowest point versus dollar since August 2012.

Europe market trend in T-Advisor

Recession was awful news for Brazil, as it was commented last month. Not only because of the negative effects, but due to the Moody’s reaction: a cut in the outlook from stable to negative. On Sunday, presidential election will take place in the biggest South American economy and the result is still open: current President Rousseff of candidate Silva?

Latam market trend in T-Advisor

In Asia, doubts increase with the recent decision made by Japanese Premier Abe to increase taxes, putting at risk his expansive programme to push up the economy. On the other side, new figures alert investors about the economic development in China.

Asia market trend in T-Advisor

Global market trends: markets in June

Global market trends in June were a bit more bullish compared with May, as investors received positively the messages from the main central banks. These institutions are still very important in the market confidence and sentiment, because the economy does not have definitive recovery signals.

Market trends in June in T-Advisor

In the case of Europe, the ECB decided finally to use the artillery against the low inflation and, behind that, the risk of deflation. Chairman Draghi already gave a clear hint in the May meeting, what was not typical from the institution. The decisions, however, were welcomed but disappointed partly the markets, although even the Germans supported them. Investors want a European quantitative easing as in US.

Market trends in Europe in T-Advisor

This quantitative easing is coming to an end at the other side of the Atlantic. Mrs. Yellen cut in every meeting US$ 10 bn and in June she did it again, but there is no reaction in the market about it. The important is the Fed outlook about US growth, because it has to do with inflation and rates. And Yellen still sees some clouds. Investors are sure that a rate increase will not take place for a very long time and this outlook push up US indices to records.

Market trends in US in T-Advisor

Crossing Río Bravo to the South, the earthquake comes from Argentina. The country, which was quite bullish in the last months, received suddenly an unexpected hit from an American court. Argentina has to pay the hedge funds or declare the default. On the contrary, Mexican stock exchange is moving very positively.

Market trends in Latam in T-Advisor

What Asia refers, China economic data are better or not so bad as expected. That helps the markets in the continent. Also India, the most bullish in the T-Advisor ranking, is profiting from the high expectations of the new government. On the contrary, the long electoral process in Indonesia is affecting negatively the local stock exchange.

Market trends in Asia in T-Advisor

World global trends: markets in March

An approach to global trends in March has to take into account the last US Federal Reserve meeting. Janet Yellen began her term making some changes from Bernanke’s heritage. She prefers to look more the job statistics before an increase in the interest rates. This announcement moved the market, mainly in the US.

Global markets in march

Our chart shows that 40% stocks have a bullish trend in the US, against the 36% in February. The chart below is clearer: the trend in the biggest world economy is more positive. The prices were low in February and that point attracted investors, together with the Fed outlook.

US Global Trend in T-Advisor

On the other side, emerging markets are still quite bearish. In LatAm the trend seems to improve, but the original point was so low that it will take still some time till the positions show a higher point. However, the line up appears to be solid, as it accounts a 23% against a 13% in February.

LatAm Global Trends in T-Advisor

But the more interesting development took place in Asia. Although the general trend in the continent is bearish, there is a jump in two countries to the top bullish positions: India and Indonesia. The reason lays on the elections. Both countries have elections in the beginning of April and the perspective is that new governments will be more “business-friendly” as their predecessors. The Indian and Indonesian stocks exchanges experienced in the last week a soar: more than 50% of the companies have a bullish trend.

Asia Global Trends in T-Advisor

This situation in Asia is an exception, because the other main Asian stocks are in the lowest positions: China has less than 10% bullish; Hong Kong and Japan, less than 20%; and Singapore, less that 30%.

Generally, stocks have chances to increase in the next months, as the beginning point is very low. Experts comment that April is a typical bullish month. Let’s see what we discover in four weeks.

2014: back to growth… sure?

Growth outlook 2014 US and Eurozone

Economic outlook for 2014, following the main institutions’ projections, is more positive than the years before. The slope upwards is far from being strong, but there is a consensus in some points.

First of all, US will be back to growth, with projections over 2.5% for the GDP next year. The more optimistic is the Federal Reserve, with a perspective between 2.8% and 3.2%. It is not very surprising, as this institution decided yesterday to reduce the quantitative easing programme. The Fed sustained that the economic improvement is “consistent”. The outlook for the OECD is also similar to the Fed. Just the IMF is a bit far, because its last projection was in October, in the days of the Administration shutdown.

Secondly, the Eurozone will have a low growth for 2014. It also surprises that the ECB is the more optimistic (1.1% GDP growth) against the OECD and the IMF, which agreed in this projection in 1.0%. Last monthly bulletin from the ECB stated that the risks for the Eurozone are still on the downside. The central bank underlined the uncertainties in the global money and financial market.

The point is that the general growth pace is still slow. Emerging economies will suffer in 2014 a slower growth and there are doubts about their reaction with a further tapering from the Federal Reserve and the instability in the currency markets. What Japan refers, Abenomics (the economic policy measures developed by Primer Minister Abe) will hit hard in the inflation, as a result of the monetary expansion, but the country will return slightly to growth.

In any case, the main institutions do not close the crisis yet. Although all try to show a more positive tone, the risks are still persistent, mainly in the credit markets and the investment, but also in the consumption, affected by the general uncertainty. Finally, the point in 2014 is still in the monetary policy measures, as all market agents react strongly to every decision and comments from the central banks.