Tag Archives: Ukraine

Global market trends: markets in summer

Summer is usually a term quite unstable for the markets. August is a month with higher volatility as capital flows diminish and movements show bigger than they really are. This summer, markets experienced a sudden fear not related to economic or financial reasons, but political ones: the Ukraine crisis. Investors were always with an eye on this country, which is living a civil war. Behind of this war, there is a hidden power fight between Western countries and Russia, as a new edition of the old Cold War. When such kind of political tension exists, money flees. The war still exists and is far to be solved, but it seems that the market worries changed in the last weeks to other motivations: Central Banks.

Global market trends in august in T-Advisor

The World Central Banks meeting in Jackson Hole, US, some days ago, showed the different strategies that are being discussed by the monetary policy managers in their influence areas. Analysts and investors are almost sure that a rate hike will be sooner than later in the main world economy, but Mrs. Yellen is still reluctant while unemployment does not strengthen its downwards slope.

US market trend in August in T-Advisor

In Europe, on the contrary, markets are very sensible to every word that Mr. Draghi says, because it is to expect that new expansive monetary decisions will be taken. For today’s ECB meeting, analysts opt for some explanations instead of new decisions, as more details about TLTRO (a system to lend huge money amounts to banks). ECB Chairman announced in Jackson Hole that the institution is ready to act. Meanwhile, main European countries inflation and GDP figures were quite bad. This is considered as a pressure for the ECB to decide new measures.

Europe market trend in August in T-Advisor

LatAm countries are under the shadow of two crises: the eternal Argentinian debt troubles and the recession in Brazil. In the case of Brazil, analysts comment that this decrease in the GDP has to do with the post Football Worldcup effect. In any case, low prices are still attractive for investors in this area.

LatAm market trend in August in T-Advisor

In Asia, worries increase around China, as the recovery momentum slowed and opened doubts about the strength of the upward movement. However, T-Advisor global trend tool shows that the second world economy markets are sounder that some months ago, when the trend was deeply bearish.

Asia market trend in August in T-Advisor

Markets deal with several risks in the short-term

The current world situation has some points of instability for the markets. Last year, the earnings were quite high after the financial crisis years, but 2014 began with a more complex landscape, mainly in the emerging markets, as we have written before in this blog.

Risks: Global trends in markets by T-Advisor

As we see in the chart above, the main trend is still bearish for all the markets. What is happening? The first problem has to do with central banks. Janet Yellen, new chairwoman in the US Federal Reserve, seems to be “dovish” as she prefers to delay somehow the taper of the quantitative easing or, at least, wait more for an increase of the interest rates (announced for 2015), not linked to a concrete unemployment rate. Is it good? Not necessary, if the Fed mentions in today’s and tomorrow’s meeting that the US economic recovery is slower than expected.

On the other side of the Atlantic, ECB chairman Mario Draghi announced surprisingly in last press conference that the institution will not take any decision in the monetary policy although the credit flows are still low, there are downside risks for inflation and the exchange rate euro-dollar is touching the psychological 1.40 $ border. This exchange rate is risky for European exports and has influence in the decrease of the inflation, as import prices pressure to lower prices. An outlook of lower prices is critical, because it delays consumers and investors decisions to buy.

In the Asian front, China worries the markets, as there are some dangerous signs related to the financial and the export sector, amongst others. But the markets follow carefully the developments in Ukraine. Recent political events in Crimea increased concerns for the effects of the economic sanctions imposed to Russia by the EU and US, apart from the risk of a conflict on the land.

Next weeks will be decisive to watch the evolution of the markets: will instability be part of 2014? Or are all of these risks just an exception in a possible upward trend?