It happened. Nobody expected (really) that an outsider as Donald Trump could win the election for the presidency against the candidate of the establishment, Hillary Clinton. But Trump will swear his charge as the 45th president of the USA in Washington next January. What will he bring to the markets?
The first reaction but all except negative. S&P 500 and Dow Jones went up in the following days after the election. The rise has been around 2% in this period.
S&P 500 chart in T-Advisor
Dow Jones chart in T-Advisor
Trump has campaigned for an expansive economic model. He underlined this idea in the address after the victory, because he insisted in rebuilding infrastructures. Maybe, markets have chosen to look the positive part of the Trump proposals, as NY Times comments. The positive reaction was not only in equities, but also in bonds. The position commented in Black Rock put the accent in the possible reflation if new administration confirms the Trump programme.
The effects were not so nice in other world regions. For instance, Latam received a hit and the markets (above all, Argentina and Brazil) dropped dramatically. The worst result was in the Mexican market, with a loss of 6.7% in the last 7 days. There are fears about the next decisions related to Mexico and Latam from USA, above all what refers to immigration and free trade.
Mexico IPC chart in T-Advisor
We are not trying to predict the future. Markets usually have their own way to welcome a president. In this case, the result was positive, but it does not mean that there will be a bubble, as some say, or it will be the next crash. For sure, there will be several changes compared with the Obama Administration. Trump has also the support of the US Congress, as Republicans have the majority in both houses and this can push their economic decisions. We will comment next year to contrast the initial perceptions and the reality.