Tag Archives: Latam

Global market trends: markets in September

If we talked last month about the effects of the crisis in Ukraine in summer, we have to talk now about more political instability in September. The war in the Middle East promoted by the group ISIS and the referendum in Scotland were to main issues (of course, not linked at all) that move the markets.

Middle East is a steady trouble hotspot. The never closed war in Irak has become more dangerous as the ISIS jihadist group has under its control a big part of the country as some part of Syria. Western countries have organized a coalition to fight it. Markets are always very frightened of this kind of crisis. On the other hand, the Scottish referendum for the independence opened an unexpected crisis as some surveys published that a majority would vote for the separation from Great Britain. At the end, calm went back to markets when the NO option won.

Global market trends in T-Advisor

In US there are many comments about the next trend in the exchanges. The rally in August, brought S&P500 to its historical peak over 2.000 points two weeks ago (Alibaba IPO helps a bit), but some investors and experts think that the next movements will be negative. In any case, our trend shows a retrace.

US market trend in T-Advisor

In Europe, Mr. Draghi has the power. ECB today’s meeting will reveal the following steps in the monetary policy management, but it seems that the ECB Chairman is determined to act with expansive monetary decisions. Germany is behind trying to avoid such idea, after the next year budget of the first European economy shows that no “bunds” will be issued in 2015. However, ECB September meeting has had an effect in currencies: euro is in the lowest point versus dollar since August 2012.

Europe market trend in T-Advisor

Recession was awful news for Brazil, as it was commented last month. Not only because of the negative effects, but due to the Moody’s reaction: a cut in the outlook from stable to negative. On Sunday, presidential election will take place in the biggest South American economy and the result is still open: current President Rousseff of candidate Silva?

Latam market trend in T-Advisor

In Asia, doubts increase with the recent decision made by Japanese Premier Abe to increase taxes, putting at risk his expansive programme to push up the economy. On the other side, new figures alert investors about the economic development in China.

Asia market trend in T-Advisor

Global market trends: markets in June

Global market trends in June were a bit more bullish compared with May, as investors received positively the messages from the main central banks. These institutions are still very important in the market confidence and sentiment, because the economy does not have definitive recovery signals.

Market trends in June in T-Advisor

In the case of Europe, the ECB decided finally to use the artillery against the low inflation and, behind that, the risk of deflation. Chairman Draghi already gave a clear hint in the May meeting, what was not typical from the institution. The decisions, however, were welcomed but disappointed partly the markets, although even the Germans supported them. Investors want a European quantitative easing as in US.

Market trends in Europe in T-Advisor

This quantitative easing is coming to an end at the other side of the Atlantic. Mrs. Yellen cut in every meeting US$ 10 bn and in June she did it again, but there is no reaction in the market about it. The important is the Fed outlook about US growth, because it has to do with inflation and rates. And Yellen still sees some clouds. Investors are sure that a rate increase will not take place for a very long time and this outlook push up US indices to records.

Market trends in US in T-Advisor

Crossing Río Bravo to the South, the earthquake comes from Argentina. The country, which was quite bullish in the last months, received suddenly an unexpected hit from an American court. Argentina has to pay the hedge funds or declare the default. On the contrary, Mexican stock exchange is moving very positively.

Market trends in Latam in T-Advisor

What Asia refers, China economic data are better or not so bad as expected. That helps the markets in the continent. Also India, the most bullish in the T-Advisor ranking, is profiting from the high expectations of the new government. On the contrary, the long electoral process in Indonesia is affecting negatively the local stock exchange.

Market trends in Asia in T-Advisor

World global trends: markets in March

An approach to global trends in March has to take into account the last US Federal Reserve meeting. Janet Yellen began her term making some changes from Bernanke’s heritage. She prefers to look more the job statistics before an increase in the interest rates. This announcement moved the market, mainly in the US.

Global markets in march

Our chart shows that 40% stocks have a bullish trend in the US, against the 36% in February. The chart below is clearer: the trend in the biggest world economy is more positive. The prices were low in February and that point attracted investors, together with the Fed outlook.

US Global Trend in T-Advisor

On the other side, emerging markets are still quite bearish. In LatAm the trend seems to improve, but the original point was so low that it will take still some time till the positions show a higher point. However, the line up appears to be solid, as it accounts a 23% against a 13% in February.

LatAm Global Trends in T-Advisor

But the more interesting development took place in Asia. Although the general trend in the continent is bearish, there is a jump in two countries to the top bullish positions: India and Indonesia. The reason lays on the elections. Both countries have elections in the beginning of April and the perspective is that new governments will be more “business-friendly” as their predecessors. The Indian and Indonesian stocks exchanges experienced in the last week a soar: more than 50% of the companies have a bullish trend.

Asia Global Trends in T-Advisor

This situation in Asia is an exception, because the other main Asian stocks are in the lowest positions: China has less than 10% bullish; Hong Kong and Japan, less than 20%; and Singapore, less that 30%.

Generally, stocks have chances to increase in the next months, as the beginning point is very low. Experts comment that April is a typical bullish month. Let’s see what we discover in four weeks.

World global trends: bearish o bullish in February?

February is usually an unstable month for the markets. In this case, emerging markets have suffered more from this instability. We have already spoken about it before. The current quantitative easing cut made by the Federal Reserve affects negatively the capital flows to these countries.

T-Advisor charts show clearly these global trends. Although general markets are not specially bullish, the bearish trend is harder in Asia and Latin America:

Global trends february by T-Advisor

Even more, the worst markets in our list (from the last) are Peru, Brazil, Japan, Chile, South Africa, Mexico and Turkey. With the exception of Japan as developed country that is living some different conditions, the others are emerging markets mainly in Latin America.

Global trends LatAm by T-Advisor

Emerging Asian countries are a bit better that always in a bearish trend:

Global trends Asia by T-Advisor

In this case, the drop begun last year in June. Although the line was stable in the autumn and the beginning of the year, it registered a new hard decline in February.

Just to compare: Latin American countries quoted before have less than 20% of their listed companies with a bullish trend (in Peru and Chile, less than 9%), while Asian countries as China, Singapore, India and Hong Kong have between 20-25%. The only exception in this trend in emerging markets is Argentina, with some different components in its economy.

At the top of this list, the leaders were continuously in February the denominated PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain). Their markets, as we published before, were cheap for investors and attracted capital flows in their exchanges. In these cases, they had always bullish more than 40% of their companies (in Portugal, up to 60% or a bit more).

This kind of charts helps investors to detect risk and investment chances in the current pricing of the markets.