Tag Archives: Japan

Market opportunities by T-Advisor: Tokyo Electron

T-Advisor, through its tool Market Opportunities, has detected the company Tokyo Electron, listed in the Tokyo Stock Exchange, as an opportunity for investment.

These are the main figures about performances and volatility in the last years:

Tokyo Electron main figures in T-Advisor The chart shows the evolution in the last year:

Tokyo Electron chart in T-advisor

The technical analysis reveals also more data:

Tokyo Electron technical analysis in T-AdvisorFinally, the risk analysis is as it follows:

Tokyo Electron risk analysis in T-Advisor

Tokyo Electron is a Japanese electronics and semiconductor company. It is best known as a supplier of equipment to fabricate integrated circuits (IC), flat panel displays (FPD), and photovoltaic cells (PV). It is the largest manufacturer of IC and FPD production equipment in Japan and one of the largest in the world.

Net sales in the fiscal year 2015-2016 (ended March, 31) were 663.9 bn yens, an 8.3% more than in the last fiscal year. Net profit also increased an 8.3% compared with the fiscal year 2014-2015, up to 11.7 bn yens. The share price multiplied 2.5 times in the last five years.

Japan, in the middle of nowhere

Japan is the third largest world economy. It is one of the largest foreign investor and saver (over the GDP), its trading balance has a huge positive result and their GDP per capita is amongst the richest countries. However, it seems that no policy can bring the country out from the stagnation. The GDP growth is weak since the 90s, when the financial bubble exploded in the Empire of the Rising Sun.

This is the real economy, but what about the finances? The figures are not very nice. The T-Advisor trend evolution chart for Japan shows that the line is very  bearish the whole year 2016. In our trend index, Japan is the second-to-last country.

T-Advisor global trend evolution chart in T-Advisor

The Nikkei 225, the Japanese benchmark, has also a negative YTD performance, with an erratic trend.

Nikkei chart in T-Advisor

Compared with other neighbours in Asia, Japan is one of the weakest markets only over Shanghai.

T-Advisor comparison tool between Japan and other Asian markets

But what can we expect from the future in Japan? Our bootstrapping analysis provides a result in which we can perceive a great probability of high volatility. The range between the best and worst result is very wide and the expected performance is low, around a 26% in 10 years.

Nikkei bootstrapping analysis with T-Advisor

The cumulative returns distribution points out that there are a 50% of probabilities that the Nikkei obtains negative results in the next five years.

Nikkei cumulative distribution returns with T-Advisor

To sum up, T-Advisor data shows that the market evolution in Japan has been very bearish this year. Only a 30% of the Nikkei stocks are performing positively. The future seems to be also not stimulating, as the probabilistic bootstrapping analysis detects higher chances of negative returns for the next five years.

Global market trends: markets in January

This year has begun with the markets playing hard rock. The list of figures and events is long and all of them have effects on the markets. Obama declared the end of the crisis, radical left won in Greece, ECB began the European QE, China grew at the lower pace since 1990… Impossible to miss!

First of all, it is necessary to take into account a point in macroeconomics. IMF reduced its world growth outlook for 2015 last month. Amongst the risks, it is found the cheaper oil prices. Why? Yes, it pushes consumption and reduces industrial costs, but it can feed the deflationary trend. Deflation is very risky, as people tend to postpone investments’ and purchases’ decisions. Current price is around $50, but the pressure from Arabian producers could push it to a lower bar.

Global market trends in January in T-Advisor

Several experts have already warned that 2015 would be an unstable year for economics. However, US President Obama said in his State of Union address to the Congress that the economic crisis was over. American economy has experienced a recovery, but Federal Reserve is still reluctant to increase rates, as it does not perceive inflation risk. Although observers tend to think that the American central bank will hike rates in summer, it is still soon to have a clear perspective about that decision with the current instability.

US global trend in T-Advisor

In Europe, the ECB did finally what many economists recommended some months, even years, ago: an expansive monetary policy printing money. The European QE will expand ECB balance in €1 trillion, but effects will take at least six months. In any case, markets make their own party, till Greeks voted the radical left party Syriza in the last election. New Greek prime minister declared his intention to negotiate the country debt, but European partners do not agree. Markets have suffered abrupt ups and downs. Another point of instability was the Swiss National Bank decision to unpeg its currency from euro, which was not expected by investors.

Europe global trend in T-Advisor

Latin America is still the weakest world region. As the IMF comments, these countries are very dependent from oil and commodities. The current negative price trend for these products is punishing the market evaluation about the region.

Latin America global trend in T-Advisor

In Asia, China registered the lowest growth (“just” 7.4%) since 1990, which can show some weaknesses in its develop. These figures have partially stopped the soared trend since People’s Bank of China reduced its rates in November. In Japan, recent election victory by prime minister Abe guarantees that his expansive economic decisions will continue, but it is to see if they have effects after 25 years of weakness.

Asia global trend in T-Advisor

 

Market opportunities by T-Advisor: Terumo

T-Advisor, through its tool Market Opportunities, has detected the company Terumo, listed in Tokyo, as an opportunity for investment.

These are the main figures about performances and volatility in the last years:

Terumo main figures in T-Advisor

The chart shows the evolution in the last year:

Terumo chart in T-Advisor

The technical analysis reveals also more data:

Terumo technical analysis in T-Advisor

Finally, the risk analysis is as follows:

Terumo risk analysis in T-Advisor

The Japanese corporation works proactively to stably provide high-quality medical devices and services for the benefit of patients and medical settings in over 160 countries, while also developing solutions to advance the practice of healthcare. It has three main branches: Cardiac & Vascular for treatments including cardiac and vascular surgery; General Hospital for improving safety and easing of use in therapy devices used in hospitals and in homes; and Blood Management systems for the high-quality, efficient collection and processing of donated blood on a global basis. Founded in 1921, it has grown since the 90s with new branches in several countries and purchases.

Net sales increased steadily in the last four years. Last fiscal year, sales reached ¥467.4 billion, a 16% more compared with the former year. On the contrary, net profit fell a 27.4%, till ¥34.1 billion, after the record obtained in the fiscal year 2013. However, the company paid a higher dividend: ¥58 per share compared with ¥44 in 2013.

 

2014: back to growth… sure?

Growth outlook 2014 US and Eurozone

Economic outlook for 2014, following the main institutions’ projections, is more positive than the years before. The slope upwards is far from being strong, but there is a consensus in some points.

First of all, US will be back to growth, with projections over 2.5% for the GDP next year. The more optimistic is the Federal Reserve, with a perspective between 2.8% and 3.2%. It is not very surprising, as this institution decided yesterday to reduce the quantitative easing programme. The Fed sustained that the economic improvement is “consistent”. The outlook for the OECD is also similar to the Fed. Just the IMF is a bit far, because its last projection was in October, in the days of the Administration shutdown.

Secondly, the Eurozone will have a low growth for 2014. It also surprises that the ECB is the more optimistic (1.1% GDP growth) against the OECD and the IMF, which agreed in this projection in 1.0%. Last monthly bulletin from the ECB stated that the risks for the Eurozone are still on the downside. The central bank underlined the uncertainties in the global money and financial market.

The point is that the general growth pace is still slow. Emerging economies will suffer in 2014 a slower growth and there are doubts about their reaction with a further tapering from the Federal Reserve and the instability in the currency markets. What Japan refers, Abenomics (the economic policy measures developed by Primer Minister Abe) will hit hard in the inflation, as a result of the monetary expansion, but the country will return slightly to growth.

In any case, the main institutions do not close the crisis yet. Although all try to show a more positive tone, the risks are still persistent, mainly in the credit markets and the investment, but also in the consumption, affected by the general uncertainty. Finally, the point in 2014 is still in the monetary policy measures, as all market agents react strongly to every decision and comments from the central banks.