If we talked last month about the effects of the crisis in Ukraine in summer, we have to talk now about more political instability in September. The war in the Middle East promoted by the group ISIS and the referendum in Scotland were to main issues (of course, not linked at all) that move the markets.
Middle East is a steady trouble hotspot. The never closed war in Irak has become more dangerous as the ISIS jihadist group has under its control a big part of the country as some part of Syria. Western countries have organized a coalition to fight it. Markets are always very frightened of this kind of crisis. On the other hand, the Scottish referendum for the independence opened an unexpected crisis as some surveys published that a majority would vote for the separation from Great Britain. At the end, calm went back to markets when the NO option won.
In US there are many comments about the next trend in the exchanges. The rally in August, brought S&P500 to its historical peak over 2.000 points two weeks ago (Alibaba IPO helps a bit), but some investors and experts think that the next movements will be negative. In any case, our trend shows a retrace.
In Europe, Mr. Draghi has the power. ECB today’s meeting will reveal the following steps in the monetary policy management, but it seems that the ECB Chairman is determined to act with expansive monetary decisions. Germany is behind trying to avoid such idea, after the next year budget of the first European economy shows that no “bunds” will be issued in 2015. However, ECB September meeting has had an effect in currencies: euro is in the lowest point versus dollar since August 2012.
Recession was awful news for Brazil, as it was commented last month. Not only because of the negative effects, but due to the Moody’s reaction: a cut in the outlook from stable to negative. On Sunday, presidential election will take place in the biggest South American economy and the result is still open: current President Rousseff of candidate Silva?
In Asia, doubts increase with the recent decision made by Japanese Premier Abe to increase taxes, putting at risk his expansive programme to push up the economy. On the other side, new figures alert investors about the economic development in China.