Emerging markets compound an increasing number of countries in the last years. In the beginning, Goldman Sachs pointed them as BRIC (initials of Brazil, Russia, India and China). This successful combination enlarged joining to this group another countries: Indonesia, Korea, Taiwan, South Africa and Turkey. In the markets, they are divided between the “fragile five” (Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey) and the “fab four” (China, Taiwan, Korea and Russia). The reason to build this both groups is linked to the current account position: deficit for the first ones, surplus for the second ones.
This point is quite important in the current financial situation and conditions investors’ decisions. The “fragile five” will suffer from the tapering begun by the Fed in December. The costs to finance their deficits will increase as the dollar will be more expensive and the US debt will require higher yields. Moreover, these countries will deal with elections in 2014. On the contrary, the tapering decision did not affect the fab four, which represent 50% of the MSCI Emerging Markets index.
What is the best in emerging markets? Just run away? Take the money and say goodbye? Schroders disagree with a pessimistic position about them. As this bank underlines, these countries have solid economic fundamentals and attractive valuations. However, tapering will create uncertainty in some countries, as it was mentioned above. Avoid an exposure to tapering-affected countries and overweight the other group is the point for the British bank.
Russia appears as a specially cheap country for investors, as Alken Asset Management recently stated. The situation is similar in India: low prices open great chances, but it depends on the election results, the economic expansion and the effect of the Fed tapering. In the case of China, the view is driven to sectors that did not outperform in 2013. Possibly, Brazil will suffer at most, as the widening current account deficit will affect the economic outlook, despite the positive impact of the Football World Cup in investment.
Invest in emerging markets is a risky game, but with productive incomes and profits if the right keys are played. In this case, macroeconomics will have a very important role in investors’ decisions.