Tag Archives: Donald Trump

Looking for signals: are we living a trend change in Dow Jones?

There have been many comments about the bullish trend in Dow Jones after the election of Donald Trump as US president. The US index reached the maximum 20,000 mark after the Inauguration Day very quickly. The given explanation is that Trump plans and market reaction remembered the first Reagan term in the 1980’s. The current debate is if the bullish trend will keep on or not. There are already pundits that have spoken about a dramatic crash, but in T-Advisor, we prefer to consider figures instead of opinions.

First of all, we have to consider two main points:

  • It is not possible to predict the future.
  • Past performances do not guarantee future ones.

Although they are broadly known, it is useful to remember both, as people take some prospects as immediate reality, but they aren’t.

Let’s look at some technical analysis references in the Dow Jones chart in T-Advisor:

Dow Jones chart in T-Advisor

Technical analysis specialists usually consider that:

  • When two MACD cross from up to down, there is a possibility of negative change of trend. This happened at the beginning of March.
  • When the line crosses a Bollinger Band, investor should look at a repetition of this crossing. If it repeats, there is a possibility of trend change. The first crossing happened some days ago in the lower band.

On the other hand, if we make a bootstrapping analysis of the Dow Jones for the next year, this is the result:

Dow Jones bootstrapping in T-Advisor

The distribution of the possible performance is the following:

Cumulative returns distribution of the Dow Jones for 2017

There is 66% of probability that the Dow Jones close the year with a positive performance. The main result is between -0.4% and 6.4%. Negative results consider 33% of probability from -0.4% and -34%.

Other figures found out in the T-Report of Dow Jones are that the volatility is 9.50%, which is low compared with other indexes and the VaR 1-week is 1.54%, that shows also a low result.

How can we consider these figures? Well, there are some technical signals that might provide the idea that there is a change of trend. The current volatility and VaR shows that the movements are not dramatic in this moment. Finally, the bootstrapping analysis is more biased to a positive result than to a negative one in the next year.

In any case, figures only show probabilities, not certainties. In a short-term vision, following the day-to-day signals is relevant. In our long-term perspective, the relevance of this analysis is relative to the moment in which the investor thinks to rebalance his or her portfolio or decide to change the assets he or she invests in.

Mexico, Trump won the election

Mexico is an example of a developing country that evolved into an industrial nation amongst the 15 largest in the world in a short period. This is the same country that suffered the bond crisis in the 1980s and that signed the NAFTA with a great positive effect for its economic development. This development has also effects in their financial markets, that boomed with a modernisation after the liberalisation of the sector and the investment of foreign entities.

The line was very positive in the global trend, as it registered a bullish bias the main part of the year. However, there was a break… after the second Tuesday in November. Donald Trump won the election and the promises of tightening the relationship with the southern neighbour shocked the Latam markets and, specially, the Mexican one. The line is clear in the T-Advisor trend evolution chart:

Global Trend Evolution chart of Mexico in T-Advisor

The IPC, the Mexican benchmark, scaled a 30% in the last five years, but this positive trend changed dramatically at the beginning of the month.  If we look at the chart, the drop is clear and the change in all technical analysis references is relevant.

IPC YTD evolution in T-Advisor

Compared with other Latam stock exchanges, Mexico didn’t recover from the Trump shock:

Comparison Latam markets in T-Advisor

The question is: what is going to happen after this shock? Trump has relaxed somehow his strong comments about the relationship with Mexico, but nobody knows his real intentions when he takes office in January. Will he order the building of the wall in the Mexican border? Will he abandon the NAFTA? Will he control the Mexican immigration? All these decisions would have strong negative effects in the economy of Mexico and they would also shock the financial markets. Our bootstrapping tool reveals that there are 25% possibilities of a negative return of the IPC in the next two years. However, there are 40% probability of positive returns between 2% and 45%.

Mexico IPC bootstrapping in T-Advisor

This analysis is based on the historical evolution and considers that past performances do not guarantee future returns. In any case, these results can also be altered by sudden political decisions. Many analysts consider that 2017 will be a volatile year linked to political instability. We will soon discover how it will affect to Mexico.

What will Donald Trump bring to the markets?

It happened. Nobody expected (really) that an outsider as Donald Trump could win the election for the presidency against the candidate of the establishment, Hillary Clinton. But Trump will swear his charge as the 45th president of the USA in Washington next January. What will he bring to the markets?

The first reaction but all except negative. S&P 500 and Dow Jones went up in the following days after the election. The rise has been around 2% in this period.

S&P 500 chart in T-Advisor

S&P 500 chart in T-Advisor

Dow Jones chart in T-Advisor

Dow Jones chart in T-Advisor

Trump has campaigned for an expansive economic model. He underlined this idea in the address after the victory, because he insisted in rebuilding infrastructures. Maybe, markets have chosen to look the positive part of the Trump proposals, as NY Times comments. The positive reaction was not only in equities, but also in bonds. The position commented in Black Rock put the accent in the possible reflation if new administration confirms the Trump programme.

The effects were not so nice in other world regions. For instance, Latam received a hit and the markets (above all, Argentina and Brazil) dropped dramatically. The worst result was in the Mexican market, with a loss of 6.7% in the last 7 days. There are fears about the next decisions related to Mexico and Latam from USA, above all what refers to immigration and free trade.

Mexico IPC chart in T-Advisor

Mexico IPC chart in T-Advisor

We are not trying to predict the future. Markets usually have their own way to welcome a president. In this case, the result was positive, but it does not mean that there will be a bubble, as some say, or it will be the next crash. For sure, there will be several changes compared with the Obama Administration. Trump has also the support of the US Congress, as Republicans have the majority in both houses and this can push their economic decisions. We will comment next year to contrast the initial perceptions and the reality.

USA: economic uncertainties in an election year

The American economy has shown how an open economy can perform the best and the worst. In the years of the beginning of the crisis, there was a huge drop in all indicators. The GDP fell an 8% in a quarter in 2009, but at the end of the same year, it grew around 4%. However, the evolution shows a great instability and the forecast are also similar, with a perspective of 2-3% GDP growth for this and next year.

US GDP evolution in the last years

The past market turmoil was also dangerous for investors. Under these circumstances, the Federal Reserve chose a wait-and-see strategy. Finally, in its last meeting, the institution pointed out two rate hikes instead of four, as it mentioned in December. Investments and exports remain soft and a rate hike could make dollar more expensive, which would not be positive for future developments.

These uncertainties happen in a presidential election year. Caucuses and primary elections show the following stage: Democrats fight is between the moderate Hillary Clinton and the liberal (in an American meaning, which in Europe would be social-democrat) Sanders; on the other side, Republicans are divided between the millionaire Donald Trump and the senator Ted Cruz. Clinton and Trump, respectively, have the advantage. The difference is that the Republican Party does not support Trump. Let’s see the evolution of this situation, even more when The Economist listed a possible Trump victory as one of the 10 main global risks.

What is happening in the American markets? If we take into account the S&P 500 as one of the main references, there was a steady grow till last year, when market uncertainties were back with the Chinese crisis and how it could affect US, apart from the drop of the oil price.

T-Advisor chart: S&P 500 evolution in the last 5 years

T-Advisor global trend evolution also shows this weakness in the last year:

T-Advisor chart: USA global trend evolution

The investing landscape is not clear, but several experts are optimistic about a positive evolution of S&P this year, with a closing better than in the beginning of the year. For instance, Oppenheimer is the most optimistic and bets that the reference index will close 2016 around 2,300 points.

In the case of the Dow Jones, these are the companies with the best performance in the last year:

Best performance assets in Dow Jones

On the contrary, these are the worst:

Worst performance assets in Dow Jones

It is notorious how technology is not a sure bet, as Microsoft is on the top, but IBM is amongst the worst-performance companies, just to mention two very well-known brands.

To sum up, politics will influence this year in America, but the economic machine works very independent from them. The Fed actions, the evolution of the oil price and the dollar, as the Asian evolution will have more effects surely than the possible Trump-Clinton election.