Tag Archives: Bollinger bands

Looking for signals: are we living a trend change in Dow Jones?

There have been many comments about the bullish trend in Dow Jones after the election of Donald Trump as US president. The US index reached the maximum 20,000 mark after the Inauguration Day very quickly. The given explanation is that Trump plans and market reaction remembered the first Reagan term in the 1980’s. The current debate is if the bullish trend will keep on or not. There are already pundits that have spoken about a dramatic crash, but in T-Advisor, we prefer to consider figures instead of opinions.

First of all, we have to consider two main points:

  • It is not possible to predict the future.
  • Past performances do not guarantee future ones.

Although they are broadly known, it is useful to remember both, as people take some prospects as immediate reality, but they aren’t.

Let’s look at some technical analysis references in the Dow Jones chart in T-Advisor:

Dow Jones chart in T-Advisor

Technical analysis specialists usually consider that:

  • When two MACD cross from up to down, there is a possibility of negative change of trend. This happened at the beginning of March.
  • When the line crosses a Bollinger Band, investor should look at a repetition of this crossing. If it repeats, there is a possibility of trend change. The first crossing happened some days ago in the lower band.

On the other hand, if we make a bootstrapping analysis of the Dow Jones for the next year, this is the result:

Dow Jones bootstrapping in T-Advisor

The distribution of the possible performance is the following:

Cumulative returns distribution of the Dow Jones for 2017

There is 66% of probability that the Dow Jones close the year with a positive performance. The main result is between -0.4% and 6.4%. Negative results consider 33% of probability from -0.4% and -34%.

Other figures found out in the T-Report of Dow Jones are that the volatility is 9.50%, which is low compared with other indexes and the VaR 1-week is 1.54%, that shows also a low result.

How can we consider these figures? Well, there are some technical signals that might provide the idea that there is a change of trend. The current volatility and VaR shows that the movements are not dramatic in this moment. Finally, the bootstrapping analysis is more biased to a positive result than to a negative one in the next year.

In any case, figures only show probabilities, not certainties. In a short-term vision, following the day-to-day signals is relevant. In our long-term perspective, the relevance of this analysis is relative to the moment in which the investor thinks to rebalance his or her portfolio or decide to change the assets he or she invests in.

What are the main technical models to analyse a share or fund? (Part 1)

Investors have usually two options about how to analyse an asset. These are fundamental and technical analysis. The first one focuses on the company, its balance, its sales and benefits or the market share in its business. The second just look at the share price and its movements, which are organised in patters for them.

The technicians or chartists have developed several measures to take into account when they analyse an asset. These are some of the most important:

Moving average

It is the most usual to analyse a chart. A moving average is the average price of a security over a set amount of time. It removes the effect of the day-to-day fluctuations and allows investors to find the real trend and react to get it or go out from a share. There are several types: simple, linear and exponential, but the SMA or Simple Moving Average is the most common. It can have different periods: 7 days, 50 days, 200 days… For instance, the 200-day-SMA is commonly used to find deep trends and the 7-day-SMA is extended for short-term trends. In T-Advisor, we use a composed SMA by a short-term and a long-term simple averages.

Chart with moving average in T-Advisor

Bollinger bands

These bands developed by John Bollinger place volatility lines above and below a moving average (usually a 20-day-SMA). The more volatility the asset has, the wider are the bands. The usefulness of them is about the signals, when the daily movements cross the upper or lower limits. Investors have to check different patterns to find if the next movement will be upwards or downwards. There are 16 different patterns as the lines cross the upper line as they cross the bottom line. Let’s see an example in T-Advisor.

Chart with Bollinger Bands in T-Advisor

These are some of the technical references that investors use to find out the trend of a security and take their next decisions. You can see more details in all the T-Reports in our database.