Monthly Archives: March 2017

Looking for signals: are we living a trend change in Dow Jones?

There have been many comments about the bullish trend in Dow Jones after the election of Donald Trump as US president. The US index reached the maximum 20,000 mark after the Inauguration Day very quickly. The given explanation is that Trump plans and market reaction remembered the first Reagan term in the 1980’s. The current debate is if the bullish trend will keep on or not. There are already pundits that have spoken about a dramatic crash, but in T-Advisor, we prefer to consider figures instead of opinions.

First of all, we have to consider two main points:

  • It is not possible to predict the future.
  • Past performances do not guarantee future ones.

Although they are broadly known, it is useful to remember both, as people take some prospects as immediate reality, but they aren’t.

Let’s look at some technical analysis references in the Dow Jones chart in T-Advisor:

Dow Jones chart in T-Advisor

Technical analysis specialists usually consider that:

  • When two MACD cross from up to down, there is a possibility of negative change of trend. This happened at the beginning of March.
  • When the line crosses a Bollinger Band, investor should look at a repetition of this crossing. If it repeats, there is a possibility of trend change. The first crossing happened some days ago in the lower band.

On the other hand, if we make a bootstrapping analysis of the Dow Jones for the next year, this is the result:

Dow Jones bootstrapping in T-Advisor

The distribution of the possible performance is the following:

Cumulative returns distribution of the Dow Jones for 2017

There is 66% of probability that the Dow Jones close the year with a positive performance. The main result is between -0.4% and 6.4%. Negative results consider 33% of probability from -0.4% and -34%.

Other figures found out in the T-Report of Dow Jones are that the volatility is 9.50%, which is low compared with other indexes and the VaR 1-week is 1.54%, that shows also a low result.

How can we consider these figures? Well, there are some technical signals that might provide the idea that there is a change of trend. The current volatility and VaR shows that the movements are not dramatic in this moment. Finally, the bootstrapping analysis is more biased to a positive result than to a negative one in the next year.

In any case, figures only show probabilities, not certainties. In a short-term vision, following the day-to-day signals is relevant. In our long-term perspective, the relevance of this analysis is relative to the moment in which the investor thinks to rebalance his or her portfolio or decide to change the assets he or she invests in.

Weekly market opportunities in T-Advisor: the best on March, 27th

T-Advisor updates weekly a list of market opportunities from several stock exchanges around the world. We sum up a selection of the best ones:

EUROPE

  • Sampo (Helsinki). An insurance company and one of the largest Finnish enterprises.

Sampo main figures in T-Advisor

Sampo chart in T-Advisor

AMERICAS

  • Quebecor (Toronto). A communications and media company, with business in broadcasting, cable, internet and publishing.

Quebecor main figures in T-Advisor

Quebecor chart in T-Advisor

ASIA-PACIFIC

  • Punjab National Bank (Bombay). The third largest bank of India.

Punjab National Bank main figures in T-Advisor

Punjab National Bank chart in T-Advisor

Find more opportunities from the main exchanges in the world on our module “Market opportunities” in T-Advisor.

How to understand the figures of my portfolio to obtain better results? (II)

We have already written about some relevant figures to manage your portfolio, as the performance evolution, the weight of the assets and the relationship between performance and volatility. There are three other parameters to take into account for your portfolio. They are related to the diversification of the portfolio assets.

It is always said that diversification limits risks and helps avoid high losses. It depends on how it is considered. For instance, you can have several assets, but it does not mean that the whole portfolio is diversified. On the contrary, it can have a low diversification, if the assets are very correlated. In this case, a movement in one of your securities has effects in the others.

Another relevant item to obtain from your portfolio is the risk contribution. These figures explain the proportion of each security to the whole risk of your portfolio. This analysis helps take decisions, as selling a share or a fund if the risk is high related to the performance that it provides to the whole investment.

Risk contribution in a T-Advisor portfolio

In the chart above, it is possible to see the different risk contribution of each share to a specific portfolio focused in Germany. If we compare this chart with the weight of each asset, IWKA is the largest, following by Dialog Semicon. However, both have provided the highest unrealised gains (59% and 46%, respectively). On the contrary, BB Biotech AG has unrealised losses of 78.5%, but the weight is 1.83% of the portfolio. That is why its risk contribution is so low.

Finally, the last measure about diversification is diversification benefit. We have already commented about it, but it is interesting to connect this figure with others to analyse the portfolio. Diversification benefit quantifies how much you earn or how much you avoid losing if you diversify your investments.

Diversification benefit in T-Advisor

As the table shows, a diversified investment protects against higher risks, if the investment cycle is negative for you. In this case, the investor is avoiding losing a 24% more.

In T-Advisor, you can also check your diversification in the “follow up” tab of your portfolio report.

diversification follow up in T-Advisor

As you can see in both articles, it is necessary to analyse your investments from different points of view and connecting different figures to understand the quality of your portfolio. If you do not understand some of these figures, you will have to deal with troubles for your money.

Weekly market opportunities in T-Advisor: the best on March, 20th

T-Advisor updates weekly a list of market opportunities from several stock exchanges around the world. We sum up a selection of the best ones:

EUROPE

  • Abertis Infraestructuras (Madrid). The world’s largest managing company of toll roads and telecommunication infrastructures.

Abertis main figures in T-Advisor

Abertis chart in T-Advisor

AMERICAS

  • Valero Energy (S&P 500). An international manufacturer and a marketer of transportation fuels, other petrochemical products, and power.

Valero Energy main figures in T-Advisor

Valero energy chart in T-Advisor

ASIA-PACIFIC

  • China Everbright Limited (Hong Kong). A Hong Kong based financial services company in asset management, investment and merchant bank in the Greater China region, including Mainland China and Hong Kong. It is a subsidiary of China Everbright Group, a Chinese state-owned enterprise.

China Everbright main figures in T-Advisor

China Everbright chart in T-Advisor

Find more opportunities from the main exchanges in the world on our module “Market opportunities” in T-Advisor.

Weekly market opportunities in T-Advisor: the best on March, 13th

T-Advisor updates weekly a list of market opportunities from several stock exchanges around the world. We sum up a selection of the best ones:

EUROPE

  • Reckitt Benckiser Group (London). A British multinational consumer goods company that manufactures health, hygiene and home products.

Reckitt Benckiser Group main figures in T-Advisor

Reckitt Benckiser Group chart in T-Advisor

AMERICAS

  • Femsa (Mexico). The largest independent Coca-Cola bottling group in the world and the largest convenience store chain in Mexico.

Femsa main figures in T-Advisor

Femsa chart in T-Advisor

ASIA-PACIFIC

  • Insurance Australia Group (Australia). A holding of several insurance brands in Australia, New Zealand and Asia.

Insurance Australia Group main figures in T-Advisor

Insurance Australia Group chart in T-Advisor

Find more opportunities from the main exchanges in the world on our module “Market opportunities” in T-Advisor.

Weekly market opportunities in T-Advisor: the best on March, 6th

T-Advisor updates weekly a list of market opportunities from several stock exchanges around the world. We sum up a selection of the best ones:

EUROPE

  • Allianz (Xetra). One of the world ‘s largest insurance and financial services company.

Allianz main figures in T-Advisor

Allianz chart in T-Advisor

AMERICAS

  • BB Seguridade (Sao Paulo). The insurance subsidiary of Banco do Brasil created in 2012.

BB Seguridade main figures in T-Advisor

BB Seguridade chart in T-Advisor

ASIA-PACIFIC

  • Tata Consultancy (Bombay). A subsidiary of the Indian Tata Group focused on information technology, consultancy and business solutions.

Tata Consultancy main figures in T-Advisor

Tata Consultancy chart in T-Advisor

Find more opportunities from the main exchanges in the world on our module “Market opportunities” in T-Advisor.

Ranking T-Advisor: The best stocks and funds in February

What stocks and funds were the best in February? T-Advisor publishes its ranking taking into account the score. T-Advisor patented score provides an asset rating (bullish, neutral or bearish) based on key performance indicators and technical analysis.

The best shares in February were as it follows:

Company Score Perf. YTD Volatility Weekly VaR Market

EUROPE

Verbio

10

82.02%

43.49%

-11.12%

Deutsche Boerse
Fasasoft

10

43.98%

26.11%

-5.38%

Deutsche Boerse
Sinnerschrader

10

38.77%

31.91%

-6.60%

Deutsche Boerse
Ipsen

10

26.20%

23.17%

-5.71%

Paris
Melexis

10

26.14%

25.84%

-5.73%

Brussels

USA-CANADA

The Medicines

10

54.45%

45.92%

-7.80%

Nasdaq
Cynosure

10

44.74%

37.66%

-6.08%

Nasdaq
Netease.com

10

41.66%

31.42%

-6.11%

Nasdaq
Marketaxess

10

32.88%

27.66%

-4.92%

Nasdaq
Incyte

10

32.74%

38.80%

-9.70%

Nasdaq

ASIA-PACIFIC

Geely Auto

10

42.51%

34.76%

-7.66%

Hong Kong
Minebea

10

31.84%

49.41%

-8.31%

Tokyo
Tosoh

10

18.74%

36.23%

-6.53%

Tokyo
CSL

10

17.38%

22.98%

-5.04%

Australia
Yasukawa Denki

10

15.84%

27.86%

-6.02%

Tokyo

LATAM

Forus

9.06

7.75%

28.89%

-7.02%

Santiago de Chile
Embonor

8.80

4.74%

23.23%

-4.97%

Santiago de Chile
Parque Arauco

8.77

6.92%

17.02%

-2.92%

Santiago de Chile
Paz Corp.

8.26

12.50%

31.27%

-6.90%

Santiago de Chile
Alicorp

8.24

5.34%

24.41%

-4.01%

Lima

The best funds in February were as it follows:

Fund Score Perf. YTD Volatility Weekly VaR Managing company

EQUITY

INVESCO FUNDS SERIES – ASIAN EQUITY FUND/A/EUR

9.72

12.47%

14.22%

-2.57%

Invesco
FF – NORDIC FUND/D/SEK

9.69

7.46%

15.79%

-2.16%

Fidelity
FRNKLN IND BLUE – UNITS – GROWTH/-/INR

9.68

8.96%

11.96%

-2.18%

Franklin Templeton
INVESCO FUNDS SICAV – NIPPON SMALL/MID CAP EQUITY F…

9.67

4.77%

23.34%

-7.33%

Invesco
ALLIANZ INST. INV. SERIES – EUROPEAN MICRO CAP/A/EUR

9.65

9.15%

13.49%

-1.82%

Allianz
DSP BR 100 EQ – UNITS – REGULAR GROWTH/-/INR

9.64

9.67%

13.90%

-3.10%

BlackRock
FTIF – TEMPLETON EMERGING MARKETS SMALLER COMPANIES…

9.62

9.34%

11.16%

-2.29%

Franklin Templeton
FTIF – FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY FUND/A/USD

9.61

9.95%

13.05%

-2.70%

Franklin Templeton
BANKINTER EEUU NASDAQ 100, F.I.

9.56

9.17%

12.23%

-2.96%

Bankinter

FIXED INCOME

AVIVA INVESTORS – GLOBAL HIGH YIELD BOND FUND/A/EUR

9.55

2.68%

10.42%

-1.32%

Aviva
AVIVA INVESTORS – EMERGING MARKETS BOND FUND/A/EUR

8.93

3.58%

8.60%

-1.89%

Aviva
ABERDEEN GLOBAL II – AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR BOND FUND/A/AUD

8.86

0.71%

4.24%

-1.10%

Aberdeen
AVIVA INVESTORS – GLOBAL CONVERTIBLES FUND/A/EUR

8.68

3.31%

13.20%

-1.85%

Aviva
BKRK MNYD PA QT – SHS OF BENEF INTEREST/-/USD

8.55

1.71%

7.87%

-1.74%

BlackRock
FTIF – TEMPLETON GLOBAL TOTAL RETURN FUND/A/PLN

8.40

1.92%

10.87%

-2.62%

Franklin Templeton
ALLIANZ GIF – US HIGH YIELD/A/PLN

8.38

2.20%

10.12%

-0.96%

Allianz