Monthly Archives: October 2016

Ranking T-Advisor: The best stocks and funds in October

What stocks and funds were the best in October? T-Advisor publishes its ranking taking into account the score. T-Advisor patented score provides an asset rating (bullish, neutral or bearish) based on key performance indicators and technical analysis.

The best shares in October were as it follows:

Company Score Perf. YTD Volatility Weekly VaR Market

EUROPE

Borussia Dortmund

10

45.14%

22.75%

-4.78%

Deutsche Boerse
Galapagos

10

5.13%

49.36%

-12.49%

Brussels
Trigano

10

12.91%

33.31%

-5.95%

Paris
Teleperform

9.96

24.21%

21.89%

-4.87%

Paris
Euro Scientific

9.85

27.11%

30.31%

-5.68%

Paris

USA-CANADA

Spectra Energy

10

76.27%

30.09%

-4.64%

NYSE
Finisar

10

102.82%

38.74%

-7.56%

Nasdaq
Netease.com Inc

10

46.62%

36.97%

-10.71%

Nasdaq
Dominos Pizza

9.96

48.13%

28.41%

-4.54%

NYSE
CBS Corp.

9.89

20.48%

24.91%

-6.68%

NYSE

ASIA-PACIFIC

Geely Auto

10

113.08%

38.05%

-8.17%

Hong Kong
Lion Corp.

10

50.17%

39.77%

-7.28%

Tokyo
Challenger Financial Services

9.99

20.30%

30.27%

-7.08%

Australia
Morinaga

9.83

51.56%

43.02%

-9.06%

Tokyo
China Pharm

9.74

3.54%

32.37%

-6.13%

Hong Kong

LATAM

Hortifrut

10

130.77%

25.31%

-1.62%

Santiago de Chile
Empresas Hites

10

96.85%

27.70%

-4.57%

Santiago de Chile
Parque Arauco

9.78

42.74%

19.39%

-3.53%

Santiago de Chile
Multifoods

9.77

216.37%

45.94%

-6.05%

Santiago de Chile
Banco Crédito Inversión

9.76

26.05%

14.72%

-2.81%

Santiago de Chile

The best funds in October were as it follows:

Fund Score Perf. YTD Volatility Weekly VaR Managing company

EQUITY

M&G JAPAN SMALLER COMPANIES FUND – C – EUR – ACC

9.58

15.34%

19.46%

-4.47%

M&G Investments
ALLIANZ RCM INDONESIA A EUR

9.50

23.21%

30.24%

-5.80%

Allianz
ALLIANZ EUROPEAN MICRO CAP IT EUR

9.47

0.80%

14.84%

-3.76%

Allianz
JPMORGAN FUNDS – JAPAN EQUITY FUND – A – USD – DISTR

9.36

7.01%

23.43%

-6.16%

JP Morgan

FIXED INCOME

FTIF – TEMPLETON EMERGING MARKETS BOND FUND – I – U…

9.15

11.40%

11.08%

-2.42%

Franklin Templeton
FTIF – FRANKLIN HIGH YIELD FUND – I – USD – ACC

9.06

18.26%

9.65%

-2.25%

Franklin Templeton
SISF GLBL INF LKD BD USD HDG C ACC

8.88

12.21%

5.51%

-1.04%

Schroder
FTIF – TEMPLETON GLOBAL TOTAL RETURN FUND A(ACC) EUR

8.87

3.34%

15.71%

-4.11%

Franklin Templeton

Weekly market opportunities in T-Advisor: the best on October, 24th

T-Advisor updates weekly a list of market opportunities from several stock exchanges around the world. We sum up a selection of the best ones:

EUROPE

  • SKF (Stockholm). A producer of bearings, seals, lubrication systems and other industrial pieces.

SKF main figures in T-Advisor

SKF chart in T-Advisor

AMERICAS

  • Cemex (Mexico). The second largest building materials company worldwide.

Cemex main figures in T-Advisor

Cemex chart in T-Advisor

ASIA-PACIFIC

  • CIMIC Group (Australia). An international contractor in the telecommunications, engineering and infrastructure, building and property, mining and resources, and environmental services industries.

CIMIC group main figures in T-Advisor

CIMIC chart in T-Advisor

Find more opportunities from the main exchanges in the world on our module “Market opportunities” in T-Advisor.

Japan, in the middle of nowhere

Japan is the third largest world economy. It is one of the largest foreign investor and saver (over the GDP), its trading balance has a huge positive result and their GDP per capita is amongst the richest countries. However, it seems that no policy can bring the country out from the stagnation. The GDP growth is weak since the 90s, when the financial bubble exploded in the Empire of the Rising Sun.

This is the real economy, but what about the finances? The figures are not very nice. The T-Advisor trend evolution chart for Japan shows that the line is very  bearish the whole year 2016. In our trend index, Japan is the second-to-last country.

T-Advisor global trend evolution chart in T-Advisor

The Nikkei 225, the Japanese benchmark, has also a negative YTD performance, with an erratic trend.

Nikkei chart in T-Advisor

Compared with other neighbours in Asia, Japan is one of the weakest markets only over Shanghai.

T-Advisor comparison tool between Japan and other Asian markets

But what can we expect from the future in Japan? Our bootstrapping analysis provides a result in which we can perceive a great probability of high volatility. The range between the best and worst result is very wide and the expected performance is low, around a 26% in 10 years.

Nikkei bootstrapping analysis with T-Advisor

The cumulative returns distribution points out that there are a 50% of probabilities that the Nikkei obtains negative results in the next five years.

Nikkei cumulative distribution returns with T-Advisor

To sum up, T-Advisor data shows that the market evolution in Japan has been very bearish this year. Only a 30% of the Nikkei stocks are performing positively. The future seems to be also not stimulating, as the probabilistic bootstrapping analysis detects higher chances of negative returns for the next five years.

Weekly market opportunities in T-Advisor: the best on October, 17th

T-Advisor updates weekly a list of market opportunities from several stock exchanges around the world. We sum up a selection of the best ones:

EUROPE

  • Repsol (Madrid). A global energy company with upstream and downstream activities in oil and gas industries.

Repsol main figures in T-Advisor

Repsol chart in T-Advisor

AMERICAS

  • Erie Insurance Group (Nasdaq). A multiline insurance company with presence in 12 US states.

Erie Insurance Group main figures in T-Advisor

Erie Insurance Group chart in T-Advisor

ASIA-PACIFIC

  • Orica (Australia). One of the largest providers of commercial explosives and blasting systems to the mining and infrastructure markets and a leading supplier of sodium cyanide for gold extraction.

Orica main figures in T-Advisor

Orica chart in T-Advisor

Find more opportunities from the main exchanges in the world on our module “Market opportunities” in T-Advisor.

Bootstrapping: an example of how it works for specific assets

In a post that we published two weeks ago, we reported that T-Advisor uploaded a new bootstrapping tool to forward testing assets and portfolios. We explained some ideas about how it works, but we are going to show today the results with specific examples.

For instance, let’s simulate a bootstrapping for S&P 500 for the next 20 years. We can select the highest number of trays: 10,000. The more number of trays we choose, they best probability analysis we get. In this case, these are the results:

S&P bootstrapping simulation

Data provide that the maximum possible loss is 25.14% in 4.5 years, but after this point, the poorest result goes up and becomes positive 16.6 years later. Expected probable returns in 20 years are 296%, what means a 15% annually. What does it mean? Investing produces profits in the long term.

The cumulative returns distribution shows also that the highest probability is that S&P performs between -72.9% and 206.82% in around the 40% of the cases.

S&P cumulative return distribution

Let’s get an example from a fixed income fund. It is a bond high yield fund. We simulate with the same conditions: 20 years and 10,000 trays. This is the result:

Fixed income fund bootstrapping simulation

The maximum possible loss is 17.26% in 5.2 years and it reaches probably the breakeven near the 20th year. Expected probable returns in 20 years are 113%, that means a 5.6% annually. In this case, fixed income performs lower than stocks, but possible losses are also less.

The cumulative returns distribution shows also that the highest probability is that the fund performs between 61% and 124% in around 27% of the cases. There is also a probability of 22.5% of obtaining between -1.4% and 61%. If we compare this figures with the S&P bootstrapping, the range is shorter, that means, it is less volatile.

Fixed income fund cumulative returns distribution

What can we conclude?

  1. Investing performs positive in the long term and probably with higher returns than other products.
  2. People should forget to become rich in a year when they invest. Results are clear only in the long term. We have to consider shares and funds investing as an asset amongst other ones.
  3. Bootstrapping provides ONLY probabilities, NOT certainties. When we forward test, we obtain signals, clues and ideas about the possible trends. That is why to read carefully and analyse quietly the results.
  4. At the end, investing is a kind of job that needs a very important value: patience.

Weekly market opportunities in T-Advisor: the best on October, 10th

T-Advisor updates weekly a list of market opportunities from several stock exchanges around the world. We sum up a selection of the best ones:

EUROPE

  • Uponor (Helsinki). An international provider of systems and solutions for safe drinking water delivery, energy-efficient radiant heating and cooling for residential, non residential and industrial branches in Europe and USA.

Uponor main figures in T-Advisor

Uponor chart in T-Advisor

AMERICAS

  • Estácio Participaçoes (Sao Paulo). One of the largest higher education institution in Brazil, with more than 500,000 students enrolled.

Estácio Participaçoes main figures in T-Advisor

Estácio Participaçoes chart in T-Advisor

ASIA-PACIFIC

  • Tata Steel (Bombay). One of the top-ten global steel producers with presence in more than 50 countries.

Tata Steel main figures in T-Advisor

Tata Steel chart in T-Advisor

Find more opportunities from the main exchanges in the world on our module “Market opportunities” in T-Advisor.

Watch our tutorials to create and manage your investment portfolios

T-Advisor is a non-stopping machine of innovate ideas to promote easy investments for all. We have opened a channel with tutorials in Youtube and Vimeo where everybody can check how to use all the tools in our platform.

For instance, let’s begin with the creation of an investment portfolio. We have already written about it, but you can get an idea of how easy it is just watching this video:

How to create a portfolio in T-Advisor

Now, let’s discover what information you can obtain in T-Advisor to manage your portfolio and make savvy changes to reach a better performance:

Analyse your portfolio using T-Advisor tools

Easy, simple, with relevant information, only a few steps: this is T-Advisor, your set of professional tools for smart, independent and self-directed investors.

Weekly market opportunities in T-Advisor: the best on October, 3rd

T-Advisor updates weekly a list of market opportunities from several stock exchanges around the world. We sum up a selection of the best ones:

EUROPE

  • Kesko (Helsinki). A retail store chain with operations in groceries, home improvement, speciality goods and car and machinery in eight countries in Northern Europe.

Kesko main figures in T-AdvisorKesko chart in T-Advisor

AMERICAS

  • Nordbord (Toronto). An international producer of wood-based panels with assets of US$1.6 billion and annual sales of approximately US$1.5 billion.

Nordbord main figures in T-Advisor

Nordbord chart in T-Advisor

ASIA-PACIFIC

  • Sabanci Holdings (Istanbul). One of the largest industrial and financial conglomerate in Turkey that controls 70 companies, employs 65,000 people and operates in 15 countries.

Sabanci Holdings main figures in T-Advisor

Sabanci chart in T-Advisor

Find more opportunities from the main exchanges in the world on our module “Market opportunities” in T-Advisor.