Monthly Archives: September 2016

T-Advisor implements the bootstrapping tool for your portfolios

T-Advisor does not stop improving the platform and providing professional advanced tools for individual investors in an accessible and easy way. This is the new case: our bootstrapping tool.

What is bootstrapping? It is a statistic complex calculation, which is possible to make due to the current computing capacity. This calculation provides an estimation of different results with the probability that it happens, taking into account the past evolution. We apply it to calculate projected returns, also known as forward testing.

Think about your portfolio. As investors, we are sometimes doubtful and impatient. We would like to know how my portfolio would evolve. We are not a kind of psychics or fortune tellers. On the contrary, we are very scientific. Our bootstrapping tool does not provide the certain results, but the possibilities that your portfolio performs in different ranges.

If you log in T-Advisor and choose one of your portfolios, you have just to click on the “bootstrapping” button. You can select the number of trays and years you would like to test with a 95% of statistical confidence. With a simple click, you obtain:

  • The performance simulation for the time frame you have chosen. It displays the maximal possible loss, the time to breakeven and the evolution of the possible good, expected and poor results.

Bootstrapping performance simulation in T-Advisor

  • The cumulative returns distribution that explains the possibilities (in %) to obtain a specific range of returns.

Bootstrapping cumulative returns distribution in T-Advisor

  • And the cumulative returns in a selected year with the probability that it happens.

Bootstrapping Cumulative returns in T-AdvisorThe bootstrapping tool is very useful to detect possible negative evolutions of your investments. The screens helps you make changes and rebalancings in your portfolios to improve your results. As we insist, it is a statistic analysis and provides projections that will change depending the modifications that you include in your portfolio.

T-Advisor has also implemented the bootstrapping tool to make forward testing in shares, funds and ETFs. We will write soon about it.

Weekly market opportunities in T-Advisor: the best on September, 26th

T-Advisor updates weekly a list of market opportunities from several stock exchanges around the world. We sum up a selection of the best ones:

EUROPE

  • Fresenius (Xetra). A global healthcare group offering high-quality products and services for dialysis, hospitals, and outpatient treatment.

Fresenius main figures in T-Advisor

Fresenius chart in T-Advisor

 

Saab (Stockholm). A Swedish aerospace and defence company.

Saab main figures in T-Advisor

Saab chart in T-Advisor

AMERICAS

  • Enbridge (Toronto). An energy delivery company focused on the transportation, distribution and generation of energy, primarily in North America.

Enbridge main figures in T-Advisor

Enbridge chart in T-Advisor

  • Companhia Brasileira de Distribuiçao (Sao Paulo). The biggest Brazilian company engaged in business retailing of food, general merchandise, electronic goods, home appliances and other products from its supermarkets, hypermarkets and home appliance stores.

Companhia Brasileira de Distribuiçao main figures in T-Advisor

Companhia Brasileira de Distribuiçao chart in T-Advisor

ASIA-PACIFIC

  • Eczacibasi Yatirim (Istanbul). A Turkish industrial conglomerate. The main sectors are building products, pharmaceuticals and consumer products. Additionally, the group is active in finance, information technology, welding technology and real estate.

Eczacibasi Yatirim main figures in T-Advisor

Eczacibasi Yatirim chart in T-Advisor

  • Hong Kong Land (Singapore). A property investment, management and development group with interests across Asia.

Hong Kong Land main figures in T-Advisor

Hong Kong Land chart in T-Advisor

Find more opportunities from the main exchanges in the world on our module “Market opportunities” in T-Advisor.

Weekly market opportunities in T-Advisor: the best on September, 19th

T-Advisor updates weekly a list of market opportunities from several stock exchanges around the world. We sum up a selection of the best ones:

EUROPE

  • Ascom Holding (Switzerland). A telecommunications company focusing on wireless solutions (on-site communications solutions) and mobile network testing.

Ascom main figures in T-Advisor

Ascom chart in T-Advisor

AMERICAS

  • CSX Corporation (Nasdaq). An international transportation company offering a variety of rail, container- shipping, intermodal, trucking and contract logistics services.

CSX Corporation main figures in T-Advisor

CSX Corporation chart in T-Advisor

ASIA-PACIFIC

  • Challenger Financial Services (Australia). An investment management firm committed to financial security in retirement.

Challenger Financial Services main figures in T-Advisor

Challenger Financial Services chart in T-Advisor

Find more opportunities from the main exchanges in the world on our module “Market opportunities” in T-Advisor.

Markets, you are getting very messy

Markets are living unusual situations since the beginning of the Great Crisis in 2007-2008. We are now living the 8th anniversary of the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. Since that moment, markets have been intervened by central banks (in fact) and their operations are not really free.

One of the chapters that we have recently lived is a “black swan”: Brexit in Europe has shaken the markets with a crash at the end of June and a continuous bullish trend in July. On the other hand, low volatility dominated the trading in August. For instance, volatility hit a 2-year-low in this month in Wall Street. Now, in September, investors tend to be negative and bears have taken their positions. In other words, markets are getting messy.

Evolution of developed markets YTD

What can we expect in the last quarter of this year? BlackRock head Russ Koesterich bets that the US election will hardly move the markets, either Clinton or Trump win. He proposes that market volatility can come from near elections in Europe, where populist parties are winning support amongst electors in several countries, even the most powerful as France or Germany.

Some investors are watching carefully the evolution in emerging markets. They are currently performing fine, mostly in Latam. Moody’s has recently raised the outlook for Brazil, Russia and China. If we look at the chart, we also find that Argentina is performing quite well after the change in the Presidential Seal.

Evolution of emerging markets YTD

But the deep discussion in the market operators is not about the influence of the politics, but the current bubble and overvaluation linked with what we mentioned at the beginning: the intervention by the central banks.

54% of investors requested by Bank of America Merrill Lynch in its Global Fund Manager Survey think that stocks and bonds are overvalued. This was also the perception before the dotcom crash in 2000. What does it mean? Are we near a new crash? Do markets experience a new “irrational exuberance” as Greenspan asserted in 1996?

We receive signals, because we cannot guess the future. The clear signal is that markets are not operating free: is it logical that several countries and companies are paying negative interests for the bonds? Is it logical that central banks keep their interest rates so low? Not at all, but the crash of this bubble can create a wave difficult to control.

Market opportunities by T-Advisor: Technip

T-Advisor, through its tool Market Opportunities, has detected the company Technip, listed in Euronext Paris, as an opportunity for investment.

These are the main figures about performances and volatility in the last years:

Technip main figures in T-Advisor

The chart shows the evolution in the last year:

Technip chart in T-Advisor

The technical analysis reveals also more data:

Technip technical analysis in T-AdvisorFinally, the risk analysis is as it follows:

Technip risk analysis in T-Advisor

Technip S.A. is a company that carries out project management, engineering and construction for the energy industry. It has about 38,000 employees and operates in 48 countries. It is listed since the 90s and it is part of the Paris benchmark index CAC 40.

Revenues in 2015 increased slightly 2.62%, up to €10.3 bn, compared with 2016, while the profit dropped a 71%, up to €173.2 million in the same period. The share suffered in 2014 and 2015 a negative trend, but it has registered a positive wave since the beginning of 2016.

Risk profile matters to build your portfolio

Basic risk profiling test in T-Advisor

Risk profile matters for investors. It is relevant information, because anybody has the same standard to resist the market changes. When we speak about risk profiling, we mean a process for finding the optimal level of investment risk for an investor, considering three items:

  • Risk required: risk associated with the return required to achieve the investor’s goals from the financial resources available.
  • Risk capacity: the level of financial risk the investor can afford to take.
  • Risk tolerance: the level of risk the investor is comfortable with.

The three components are different faces of the same process. For instance, you can be very aggressive in investments (risk tolerance), but without very much money to invest, because you are very engaged with different kind of expenditures, as a mortgage or children (risk capacity).

Investment authorities in different countries have developed several standards to test the risk profile for individuals and these tests are required to banks, wealth managers and financial adviser with their customers. These tests ask for the experience, the knowledge and the strategy. An individual with low knowledge and experience in investments cannot begin with complex products, because the risk of losing a huge amount of money is very high.

Risk profile means that individuals and their investments have to agree the same standard. From this perspective, the usual range comes from very conservative to aggressive. Usually, conservative investors prefer a lower performance if their portfolios suffer less changes and tend to keep their investments for a long term. Aggressive investors choose always a higher performance, although the assets suffer more changes and they have more probability to loss their money. They also look for short or medium-term investments.

What are the recommendations for conservative risk profiles in order to build their portfolios? Fixed-income assets (bonds, fixed-income mutual funds), cash, deposits and, if they are a bit biased to equities, the best are liquid stocks that pay dividends. On the other hand, aggressive profiles will look for equities (even in risky countries, as emergings or frontier), short-term assets and derivatives. They can provide high returns, but you can also loss everything.

What is the main recommendation over the ones above? Every investor has to honest with himself to accept his profile. If you lie yourself, you can be at a very high risk in investments. That is why you have to fill in a risk test, before you put your money in any adventure.

Weekly market opportunities in T-Advisor: the best on September, 5th

T-Advisor updates weekly a list of market opportunities from several stock exchanges around the world. We sum up a selection of the best ones:

EUROPE

  • Kingfisher (London). A multibrand company focused on home improvement stores, as Brico Depot or Castorama, amongst others.

Kingfisher main figures in T-Advisor

Kingfisher chart in T-Advisor

AMERICAS

  • First Midwest (Nasdaq). A Chicago-based American bank with business in different customer branches: consumer, companies and wealth management. 

First Midwest main figures in T-Advisor

First Midwest chart in T-Advisor

ASIA-PACIFIC

  • Maruti Suzuki (Bombay). A subsidiary of the Japanese automobile and motorcycle manufacturer Suzuki. It has almost half of the Indian passenger car market.

Maruti Suzuki main figures in T-Advisor

Maruti Suzuki chart in T-Advisor

Find more opportunities from the main exchanges in the world on our module “Market opportunities” in T-Advisor.