Monthly Archives: October 2015

What are the main technical models to analyse a share or fund? (Part 1)

Investors have usually two options about how to analyse an asset. These are fundamental and technical analysis. The first one focuses on the company, its balance, its sales and benefits or the market share in its business. The second just look at the share price and its movements, which are organised in patters for them.

The technicians or chartists have developed several measures to take into account when they analyse an asset. These are some of the most important:

Moving average

It is the most usual to analyse a chart. A moving average is the average price of a security over a set amount of time. It removes the effect of the day-to-day fluctuations and allows investors to find the real trend and react to get it or go out from a share. There are several types: simple, linear and exponential, but the SMA or Simple Moving Average is the most common. It can have different periods: 7 days, 50 days, 200 days… For instance, the 200-day-SMA is commonly used to find deep trends and the 7-day-SMA is extended for short-term trends. In T-Advisor, we use a composed SMA by a short-term and a long-term simple averages.

Chart with moving average in T-Advisor

Bollinger bands

These bands developed by John Bollinger place volatility lines above and below a moving average (usually a 20-day-SMA). The more volatility the asset has, the wider are the bands. The usefulness of them is about the signals, when the daily movements cross the upper or lower limits. Investors have to check different patterns to find if the next movement will be upwards or downwards. There are 16 different patterns as the lines cross the upper line as they cross the bottom line. Let’s see an example in T-Advisor.

Chart with Bollinger Bands in T-Advisor

These are some of the technical references that investors use to find out the trend of a security and take their next decisions. You can see more details in all the T-Reports in our database.

Weekly market opportunities in T-Advisor: the best on October, 26th

T-Advisor updates weekly a list of market opportunities from several stock exchanges around the world. We sum up a selection of the best ones:

EUROPE

  • Halma (London). A company specialised in technology to save lives, prevent injuries, and protect people and assets, for instance, explosion protection, smoke detectors or medical diagnosis.

Halma main figures in T-Advisor

Halma chart in T-Advisor

  • Ebro Foods (Madrid). The largest Spanish food processing company, with its main business lines: rice, pasta and biotechnology.

Ebro Foods main figures in T-Advisor

Ebro Foods chart in T-Advisor

AMERICAS

  • Reinsurance Group (NYSE). One of the largest reinsurance company around the world with approximately $2.9 trillion of life reinsurance in force and assets of $44.7 billion.

Reinsurance Group main figures in T-Advisor

Reinsurance Group chart in T-Advisor

  • Ienova (Mexico). A Sempra Energy Company, that develops, builds and operates energy infrastructure in Mexico.

Ienova main figures in T-Advisor

Ienova chart in T-Advisor

ASIA-PACIFIC

  • GPT Group (Australia). One of Australia’s largest diversified listed property groups, with a portfolio of offices, logistics, business parks and prime shopping centre assets.

GPT Group main figures in T-Advisor

GPT Group chart in T-Advisor

  • Hang Seng Bank (Hong Kong). One of the largest banks in Hong Kong with business in retail banking and wealth management, commercial banking, global banking and markets, and private banking.

Hang Seng Bank main figures in T-Advisor

Hang Seng Bank chart in T-Advisor

Find more opportunities from the main exchanges in the world on our module “Market opportunities” in T-Advisor.

Ranking T-Advisor: Our best stocks and funds in October

What stocks and funds were the best in October? T-Advisor publishes its ranking taking into account the score. T-Advisor patented score provides an asset rating (bullish, neutral or bearish) based on key performance indicators and technical analysis.

The best shares in October were as it follows:

Company Score Perf. YTD Volatility Weekly VaR Market

EUROPE

Artec Technologie

10

430.32%

76.69%

-8.10%

Deutsche Boerse
Koenig & Bauer

10

175.80%

41.22%

-8.25%

Deutsche Boerse
Sysopen Digia

10

110.90%

32.45%

-6.33%

Helsinki
Pfeiffer Vaccum

10

62.82%

25.43%

-4.63%

Deutsche Boerse
PCAS

10

58.55%

26.45%

-4.27%

Euronext Paris

USA

Central Garden and Pet

10

97.38%

34.58%

-6.57%

Nasdaq
TRC Companies

10

75.23%

46.71%

-8.96%

NYSE
Nexmed Inc

10

55.00%

77.27%

-18.42%

Nasdaq
Cameron International

10

30.95%

50.09%

-10.32%

NYSE
AAC Pericom Semiconductor

10

29.61%

45.94%

-6.30%

Nasdaq

ASIA

Asanuma

10

103.79%

44.85%

-5.51%

Tokyo
Geely Auto

10

53.84%

54.95%

-14.47%

Hong Kong
Tom Group

10

33.33%

47.45%

-8.59%

Hong Kong
Min Xin Holdings

9.87

11.88%

41.94%

-8.13%

Hong Kong
JEOL

9.76

9.63%

36.21%

-6.80%

Tokyo

LATAM

Embotelladora Andina

9.65

46.05%

27.20%

-5.03%

Santiago de Chile
Cervecerías Unidas

9.29

38.13%

23.71%

-4.71%

Santiago de Chile
Embonor

9.26

36.91%

25.10%

-4.89%

Santiago de Chile
Empresas CMPC

8.30

20.90%

17.91%

-3.46%

Santiago de Chile
Edelnor

8.08

12.20%

16.41%

-4.01%

Santiago de Chile

The best funds in October were as it follows:

Fund Score Perf. YTD Volatility Weekly VaR Managing company

EQUITY FUNDS

Frnkln Ind Blu – Gr

7.87

4.40%

13.93%

-3.41%

Franklin Templeton
AXA Pacific Ex-Japan Small Cap Alpha Fund Class Class M USD ACCM

7.34

1.61%

15.21%

-3.76%

AXA
R Cap As-Pac Eq — Shs -D USD- — Capitalisation

6.66

1.92%

15.63%

-3.24%

Robeco
BBVA DOBLE BENEFICIO

6.51

9.11%

12.55%

-2.65%

BBVA Gestión
JPM UK Sml Ac-C-Ins

6.40

20.43%

6.37%

-1.08%

JP Morgan AM
AXA WF Frm Europe Real Estate I CAP EUR HEDGED EUR

6.73

10.86%

15.49%

-3.49%

AXA
AIIS Eu Mic Cap — Shs -W- — Distribution

6.40

17.81%

9.27%

-2.12%

Allianz
M&G EUROPEAN SM CO-£-X-ACC

6.40

12.60%

9.71%

-2.08%

M&G Investments
Fid Special Sit Acc

6.40

8.94%

9.84%

-2.55%

Fidelity
Invesco Gl Struc Eq — Shs -A- — Distribution

6.40

3.80%

10.67%

-2.54%

Invesco AM

FIXED-INCOME

Fc Cart Rt Fj Durac – Units

9.40

12.02%

10.99%

-0.63%

Caixabank
Nuveen Ca Perf Plus

7.53

1.66%

8.72%

-2.29%

BlackRock
CAJA MADRID RENTAS I 2038 FI

7.20

4.22%

4.36%

-0.05%

Bankia Fondos
FonDeudPubInter – Units

7.11

13.74%

6.30%

-1.01%

Caixabank
Templeton Global Bond (Euro) Fund I

7.08

2.78%

4.14%

-1.14%

Franklin Templeton
Montgomery St In Se

7.01

7.55%

6.04%

-1.15%

BlackRock
Av I Lg Eu Bd — Shs -A- — Capitalisation

6.94

2.41%

10.80%

-2.96%

Aviva
Pioneer SF – Euro Extra Long Term Bond  Class F Non – Distributing EUR

6.81

1.70%

11.44%

-3.15%

Pioneer
AXA WF EURO 10+LT M Cap EUR

6.58

2.78%

10.32%

-2.91%

AXA

 

Weekly market opportunities in T-Advisor: the best on October, 19th

T-Advisor updates weekly a list of market opportunities from several stock exchanges around the world. We sum up a selection of the best ones:

EUROPE

  • Electrolux (Stockholm). A global company specialised in home appliances with brands as Electrolux, AEG or Zanussi.

Electrolux main figures in T-Advisor

Electrolux chart in T-Advisor

  • Jeronimo Martins (Lisbon). A Portugal-based international group operating in food distribution, food manufacturing, and services sectors.

Jeronimo Martins main figures in T-Advisor

Jeronimo Martins chart in T-Advisor

AMERICAS

  • Comcast (Nasdaq). An American multinational mass media company. The largest broadcasting and cable company in the world by revenue. Also Internet and telephone provider.

Comcast main figures in T-Advisor

Comcast chart in T-Advisor

  • Laurentian Bank (Toronto). A Canadian financial entity, with global services for individual, business and capital markets.

Laurentian Bank main figures in T-Advisor

Laurentian Bank chart in T-Advisor

ASIA

  • Mitsubishi Chemical (Tokyo). A company under a holding that joins all chemical, pharmacy and plastic business in Mitsubishi.

Mitsubishi Chemical main figures in T-advisor

Mitsubishi chart in T-Advisor

  • China Travel (Hong Kong). The largest travel group in China, not only as travel provider, but also as hotel operator.

China Travel main figures in T-Advisor

China Travel chart in T-Advisor

Find more opportunities from the main exchanges in the world on our module “Market opportunities” in T-Advisor.

China: economy and finances are still very connected

The Chinese economy is living an unstable situation after decades of continuous strong growth, with some years over 10%. Suddenly, there was an earthquake in August. Since then, the Chinese economy slowed its momentum depending on the world. This time all moved at the Chinese speed. The unexpected decision of the People’s Bank of China of devaluating the yuan three times in August was a shock in the world markets, as in the developed ones as in the emerging ones.

Evolution YTD of stock exchanges in China and others

The consequences were so strong, as we already explained in a former post, that the US Federal Reserve delayed its decision of hiking the interest rates due to the financial instability. What was at the beginning the end of the Chinese stock exchange bubble, it is now the start of a possible economic crisis: several figures are warning about the evolution of the second largest world economy. For instance, exports and imports go down, the inflation moderates and industrial prices slow down, the World Bank prospects for the next years speak about a deceleration (around 7% of GDP growth, when the figures were over 9%-10% in the last decade). As The Economist comments, China is a giant in trade and direct investment, but in finances and financial markets is still weak.  There is still a long pace till China will play a stronger role to substitute US as the first player. The immaturity of its financial markets is clearly showed in this chart:

Shanghai composite evolution in the last 5 years

This is the evolution of the Shanghai composite in the last 5 years. The evolution was weak between 2011 and 2013 linked to the global crisis, but suddenly a bubble was created this year and exploded violently. Chinese authorities reacted late and could not control the hard effects. The YTD gains around 40% till August are now around 1.8% (it was negative till the last week). The volatility is very high (38%) and trend is very bearish (-1.87%), as T-Advisor models show. However, investors who entered this market in October last year have registered 40% benefits.

What are the results of ETF linked to China? T-Advisor database show global negative results YTD, but most of them are improving its results in the last month:

Results of ETF in China

And the final question is: what will it happen in China? We have models, figures and charts, but no crystal ball, but we can say that it will depend on the evolution of the economy. It is still very linked to financial markets and the decisions of the government. In any case, let’s say welcome to China as very influential player in the world markets.

Market opportunities by T-Advisor: U-Blox

T-Advisor, through its tool Market Opportunities, has detected the company U-Blox, listed in the Swiss Stock Exchange, as an opportunity for investment.

These are the main figures about performances and volatility in the last years:

U-Blox main figures in T-Advisor

The chart shows the evolution in the last year:

U-Blox chart in T-Advisor

The technical analysis reveals also more data:

U-Blox technical analysis in T-Advisor

Finally, the risk analysis is as follows:

U-Blox risk analysis in T-Advisor

Founded in 1997, U-Blox is a Swiss company that creates wireless semiconductors and modules for consumer, automotive and industrial markets. They operate as a fabless integrated circuit and design house. It also develops and sells chips and modules that support global satellite navigation systems. U-Blox has purchased several companies in different countries to expand its business.

In 2014, U-Blox revenues reached CHF 270 million, a 22.9% more compared with 2013. Net profit also grew a 12.7%, till CHF 34.4 million. The share price multiplied four times since the beginning of 2013.

Market opportunities by T-Advisor: Tupras

T-Advisor, through its tool Market Opportunities, has detected the company Tupras, listed in IMKB Istanbul, as an opportunity for investment.

These are the main figures about performances and volatility in the last years:

Tupras main figures in T-AdvisorThe chart shows the evolution in the last year:

Tupras chart in T-Advisor

The technical analysis reveals also more data:

Tupras technical analysis in T-Advisor

Finally, the risk analysis is as follows:

Tupras risk analysis in T-Advisor

Tupras is the only oil refiner and the largest industrial company in Turkey. It owns 4 refineries in the country. Tupras controls the Turkish refining capacity and a 59% of the total petroleum products storage capacity. As a group, it owns also the majority in the shipping company Ditas and the petrol retailer Opet. Formerly a stated-owned company, it is listed with the 49% of its capital.

Revenues in 2015 decreased a 15.9%, till USD 18.1 million. The year profit, however, grew a 6.6%, till USD 0.67 million. The share price has doubled since January 2014.

Why central banks are relevant for you, investor?

When you read the newspaper, you find always news about the Fed, the ECB, the BoE or the BoJ. These are the initials of the most important central banks: the Federal Reserve in US, the European Central Bank for the euro-countries, the Bank of England in Great Britain and the Bank of Japan. This year, another bank has emerged because of the influence of its decisions in the global economy: the People’s Bank of China.

What are these banks? They are not commercial banks, but they have relevant tasks for the economies. The origin of each is different: for instance, the Fed was created before de WWI after a deep banking crisis; the ECB is the result of an agreement amongst the countries which use the euro as a currency…

What are the main tasks? Well, central banks have the monopoly of printing money. Due to this responsibility, they control the monetary policy through the main instrument: the interest rate. This regulates the amount of money in the system. They are also lenders of last resort for commercial banks. Of course, the tasks can be wider depending the country. For instance, if the currency is pegged to another, they decide also the exchange rate.

Why do they have such influence? Governments delegate the monetary policy in these institutions. They usually have the mandate of controlling the inflation. This is the main role for the ECB in Europe. The mandate of the Fed, on the contrary, is double, because it has to take into account not only the inflation, but also the economic growth. Decisions have to be taken in order to achieve both.

As an investor, why are they relevant for me? You surely have heard the news in August about the drop of the stock exchanges. The origin was in the sudden decisions of the People’s Bank of China, which devaluated the yuan three times in three days. The worldwide effects can be perceived in this chart:

T-Advisor chart with the impact of the devaluation of the yuan in the stock exchanges last August

This is not the only example. The exchanges follow continuously the steps of these banks, as the interest rate has a relevant influence in the evolution of the economy or the companies. For instance, it is expected that the Fed tightens this year its monetary policy increasing the interest rate. The debate has been continuous since the last year and keeps on. As a result, the S&P was quite unstable in the last 12 months. It is relevant the drop before Christmas, when the Fed met for last time in 2014:

S&P evolution in the last year

The relevance of the Fed is also huge in the commodity markets, as they are nominated in dollars. In the case of the ECB, it has built an own vocabulary. It was famous with the former president Jean-Claude Trichet that the increase of the rates was announced two months before saying that the institution was “vigilant” with the price evolution and a month before saying “very vigilant”. The bank prefers to be foreseeable in order to avoid sudden market movements. Current chairman Mario Draghi was also famous, because his words defending the euro stopped the instability over this currency in 2012.

In any case, you, as an investor, should watch what the central banks say. If you are a trader, follow every word. If you are a long-term investor, take care of the statements to rebalance your portfolio in certain moments.