Monthly Archives: January 2015

Carmakers: opportunities for a recovery

Carmarkers' brands

Carmakers are one of most damaged industry in the current economic crisis. The drop of consumption, the high oil prices and the cut in the credit flows hit the branch severely. The figures from the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (OICA) show the trends: Europe and North America have fewer sales now than before the crisis. However, global figures are higher, because China multiplied 4.5 times the sales in 2013 compared with 2005.

China is the promising market for carmakers, as US, Western Europe and Japan have a low recovery. India does not have the expected development for this branch, although the current government is more opened for business.

If we collect the figures from the four largest carmakers, the results are as follow:

Toyota figures in T-Advisor

The largest carmaker, the Japanese Toyota, increased the revenues 16.4%, till ¥25,7 billion, in fiscal year 2014. Net income almost doubled, till ¥1,8 billion, in the same period.

Volkswagen figures in T-Advisor

The German carmaker improved the revenues 2.2% in 2013, till €197 billion. Net profit dropped a 58.2%, till €9.1 billion.

General Motors figures in T-Advisor

Revenues from the American carmaker increase 2%, till $155.4 billion, in 2013. Net income fell 22.4%, till $3.8 billion.

Carmakers: Renault figures in T-Advisor

Renault, the French carmaker joined with the Japanese Nissan, earned just a 0.5% more in 2013. The revenues reached €40.9 billion. Net income, however, dropped a 59%, till €700 million.

The comparison in the main data made by T-Advisor has the following results:

Performance

YTD

Volatility

YTD

Score

Liquidity

VaR

1 week

Toyota

3.53%

11.61%

9.74

10

-6.82%

Volkswagen

10.58%

24.07 %

7.33

9

-4.86%

General Motors

-5.93%

22.08%

7.17

9

-9.20%

Renault

12.59%

32.85%

8.48

10

-6.88%

Investors show interesting opportunities in European carmakers, as the current performance in 2015 is high. However, the best T-Advisor score belongs to Toyota, which is also the least volatile stock. The worst is General Motors, with the lower performance and score and shows a very high VaR.

Market opportunities by T-Advisor: Tattersalls

T-Advisor, through its tool Market Opportunities, has detected the company Tattersalls, listed in the Australian Stock Exchange as an opportunity for investment.

These are the main figures about performances and volatility in the last years:

Tattersalls main figures in T-Advisor

The chart shows the evolution in the last year:

Tattersalls chart in T-Advisor

The technical analysis reveals also more data:

Tattersalls technical analysis in T-Advisor

Finally, the risk analysis is as follows:

Tattersalls risk analysis in T-Advisor

Tattersalls (Tatts Group) is a global leader in the wagering, lotteries and gaming industries with operations in Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom. It is one of the most established gambling operators in the world, and it owns and operates a wide portfolio of brands including TattsBet, Tatts, NSWLotteries, Golden Casket, Bytecraft, Talarius and Maxgaming.

Revenues increased steadily till 2012, when it dropped a 27.6%. Last fiscal year, revenues also reduced a 2.7%, till AUD 2,868.3 million. Net profit in fiscal year 2013-14 reached AUD 200.4 million,  a 19% less compared with the former year. However, share price has registered an upward trend since 2012 and it has grown a 20% since October 2014, till AUD 3.6.

Chile: when copper is not enough

Chile is one of the most stable and developed economies in Latin America. In these last years of the Great Depression, the country increases its GDP with a very good strength. However, the economy suffered a drop in their growth in 2014. Chile is very dependent from copper exports, as it is the largest world producer. Copper exports sum up to 60% of the whole figure. Last year, the country had to deal with two negative impacts: the hard fall of the copper price and the declining demand from China, the main consumer.

Copper prices since 2011 in London Market

However, OECD outlook and the own country figures are more positive for 2015. Political and economic stability are the main values for this country in a region with regular financial earthquakes. In the stock exchange, the main index IPSA had a better development after the minimum last February. Last weeks, the reference index fell due to the current world financial markets instability. Generally speaking, the trend is still a bit weak, but the index closed 2014 with black figures.

Global market trend in Chile

What are the winners and the losers in the IPSA main index in Chile Stock Exchange? The top is composed by a very varied group: two energy providers (Colbun and Edelnor), a pharma (CFR), a paper producer (Empresas CMPC) and a wine producer (Viña Concha Toro).

Five IPSA winners

On the other hand, the main loser is a mining company (CAP), reflecting the branch situation. Other big losers are a building group (Besalco), a transport company (Cía. Sudamericana), a industrial producer (Embotelladora Andina) and a retail (Ripley).

Five IPSA losers

TechRules introduces T-Advisor, the first roboadvisor in Spain

T-Advisor homepage

TechRules, the leading company for advanced wealth management solutions, introduces T-Advisor, the first roboadvisor in Spain. T-Advisor is a suite of tools to manage and monitor portfolios. It offers a new commercial channel to gain new customers amongst financial advisers, wealth managers and financial entities.

Roboadvisors have deeply changed financial advisory landscape in US. There are already several solutions that have created a new business model where technology and human capital join to add value to financial companies and entities.

T-Advisor has been launched for a year and a half and it has already more than 1.000 users that manage their portfolios. The suite is based on data accuracy, a list of more than 6.000 assets and dozens of world reference markets to look up, an easy-to-use toolkit with many hints and the technological support by a leading fintech company as TechRules.

Tomorrow, TechRules will officialy introduce T-Advisor to professionals from the finance branch in Spain. In the presentation, TechRules general managers will give many details about its main features that get close finances to everyone.

“This concept didn’t exist in Spain. TechRules detected that the roboadvisor model is a future business line. Solutions as T-Advisor let financial companies have available tools for their customers, so that they feel the control of their investments. At the same time, these companies benefit from an easy-to-manage platform that opens a new communication channel with individual investors. This technology provides a higher adaptability, as it opens our business to a greater number of people and reduces substantially the costs. In exchange,you obtain a collection of tools with excellent and professional features”, explains Jaime Bolívar, TechRules general manager.

T-Advisor is a suite of professional tools with an easy and usable design to approach finances to everyone. With these tools, individual investors can organise, monitor and modify their investments to get the best results. In our blog, we have written posts full of details about all features.

Market opportunities by T-Advisor: Grupo Aeroportuario Centro Norte

T-Advisor, through its tool Market Opportunities, has detected the company Grupo Aeroportuario Centro Norte, listed in Mexico Stock Exchange as an opportunity for investment.

These are the main figures about performances and volatility in the last years:

Grupo Aeroportuario Centro Norte main figures in T-Advisor

The chart shows the evolution in the last year:

Grupo Aeroportuario chart in T-Advisor

The technical analysis reveals also more data:

Grupo Aeroportuario technical analysis in T-Advisor

Finally, the risk analysis is as follows:

Grupo Aeroportuario risk analysis in T-Advisor

The group has concessions to operate, manage and develop 13 international airports in Mexico’s north and central regions. The airports serve one of Mexico’s principal metropolitan areas (Monterrey), which is the fourth busiest airport in the country; tourist destinations (Acapulco, Mazatlán, and Zihuatanejo); regional centers (Chihuahua, Culiacán, Durango, San Luis Potosí, Tampico, Torreón, and Zacatecas); and border cities (Ciudad Juárez and Reynosa). During 2013, these airports served more than 13 million passengers. Three quarters of the group’s revenues come from aeronautical and complementary services subject to maximum tariff regulation. Group revenues in 2013 increased an 8.8%, till 3,418 million pesos. Net income jumped a 46.6%, till 1,201 million pesos.

Global market trends: markets in the beginning of 2015

The beginning of the year in markets is all except quiet. After the traditional rally at the end of December, the global market trends are very open: ups and downs in an unstable landscape. There are some reasons that show that risks are increasing, mainly: oil, euro and Greece.

Global market trends in T-Advisor in the beginning of 2015

What is happening with the oil price? There is a fight amongst producers, mainly OPEC countries and USA. Americans become the world largest producers thanks to fracking techniques and OPEC countries wants to be still influent and keep their market share. Winners? Consumers, carmakers, chemicals and many industrial sectors. Also general world economy, which will increase a bit more due to the oil price drop. Losers? Oil companies and some weak producers as Russia or Venezuela. Dropping oil prices (-55% since the last peak) are affecting deeply Latam stock exchanges, because apart from Venezuela, other countries as Mexico, Brazil and Argentina are also oil producers.

The other instability front is Europe in two ways: first of all, the euro is falling against other currencies. Above all, the most important exchange, the US dollar, accounts today a drop of 15% since the last peak in May 2014, when it reached $1.39. Yesterday, the doors were more open to a possible monetary quantitative expansion (QE) by the ECB, in the same style as the Federal Reserve did. What does it mean? More euros in the market and a lower exchange. This will be better for exports, but it deepens in the discussion about the ECB role and the risks of buying European debt with money from the Central Bank. However, the Eurozone closed 2014 with a -0.2 % negative inflation and some are afraid of a possible deflation process… or even a similar process as in Japan.

Last risk is Greece, again. An internal political crisis linked to the election of the President of the Republic has led to new elections. Traditional parties (centre-right New Democracy and centre-left Pasok) have governed in coalition last two years. Now, the risk is a new left party, Syriza, which promotes in its political programme the renegotiation of the Greek debt. Who are the main creditors? Germany and other European countries.

In the other side of the world, despite the slowing China, other countries show strength, as India. Yesterday’s Bank of India cutting rate decision boosted the stock exchange and consolidates the perspective of opportunities in the country.

In any case, generally speaking, the unstable landscape because of the above-mentioned reasons opens several doubts about the improvement of the world economic recovery.

T-Advisor global trend in Europe

T-Advisor global trend in USA

T-Advisor global trend in Latam

T-Advisor global trend in Asia

Market opportunities by T-Advisor: Villeroy und Boch

T-Advisor, through its tool Market Opportunities, has detected the company Villeroy und Boch, listed in Xetra as an opportunity for investment.

These are the main figures about performances and volatility in the last years:

Villeroy und Boch main data in T-Advisor

The chart shows the evolution in the last year:

Villeroy und Boch chart in T-Advisor

The technical analysis reveals also more data:

V&B technical analysis in T-Advisor

Finally, the risk analysis is as follows:

Villeroy und Boch risk analysis in T-Advisor

Villeroy und Boch is one of the world largest manufacturers of ceramics. Headquartered in Germany, it was founded more than 250 years ago and it is listed since 1990. The group has more then 7.750 employees. Currently, Villeroy und Boch focuses its business activities in the company divisions ‘Bathroom & Wellness’ and ‘Tableware’.

Last report from 2013 shows that revenues were stable compared with 2012, till €745.3 million. Two thirds of the revenues come from abroad. However, net result jumped a 62.6%, till €23.9 million. Villeroy und Boch increased a 5% the dividend payment, till €0.37 per share.

T-Advisor model portfolios: these are our results

T-Advisor, as wealth management solution for individuals and professionals, has not only tools for own investments, but also proposals to follow or even copy. That’s why our system has its own model portfolios. They are nine: five related to risk profile (from aggressive to very conservative) and four related to countries (Germany, UK, Spain and Nasdaq 100 from US).

How do they work? We select between four and six ETFs for the risk-profiled portfolios and up to ten stocks for the country portfolios. They are not static, but we rebalance them every two months. These rebalances let us improve the results, as we exclude the positions more affected by market negative waves and substitute them for better stocks or ETFs. Diversification is also part of the strategy. We select the securities with the best score and relevant figures to obtain the best results.

These are the results for 2014 for our risk-profiled model portfolios:

1-year-return

Volatility

Sharpe ratio

Aggressive

17.77%

10.94%

1.84

Dynamic

20.03%

9.91%

1.99

Balanced

19.50%

5.57%

2.84

Conservative

17.84%

2.06%

4.89

Very conservative

14.02%

0.62%

5.81

Who said that very conservative strategies have very low returns? And now the results of our country portfolios:

1-year-return

Volatility

Sharpe ratio

Index

Germany

20.84%

10.94%

1.84

2.65% (DAX)

Spain

9.31%

9.91%

1.99

3.66% (Ibex)

Nasdaq 100

1.91%

5.57%

2.84

18.8% (Nasdaq)

UK

-0.59%

2.06%

1.89

-2.71% (FTSE)

Our strategies outperformed the reference indexes (with the exception of Nasdaq 100), but even in a negative environment, as in UK, our portfolio reduced the losses.

Aren’t you tempted to clone them? We have a tool to let our users do it. Let’s try it and compare the results with your investments!