Monthly Archives: November 2014

Market opportunities by T-Advisor: Lenzing

T-Advisor, through its tool Market Opportunities, has detected the company Lenzing, listed in Vienna Stock Exchange, as an opportunity for investment.

These are the main figures about performances and volatility in the last years:

Lenzing main data in T-Advisor

The chart shows the evolution in the last year:

Lenzing chart in T-AdvisorThe technical analysis reveals also more data:

Lenzing technical analysis in T-Advisor

Finally, the risk analysis is as follows:

Lenzing risk analysis in T-Advisor

Lenzing is an international group of companies with headquarters in Austria. It supplies the global textile and nonwovens industry with high-quality man-made cellulose fibers. The portfolio ranges from dissolving pulp, standard and specialty cellulose fibers to engineering services. It has factories and offices in 8 countries. In the last 10 years, the group has reorganized its structure, selling some divisions as plastic and buying competitors in its core business.

Lenzing sales in 2013 decreased 8,6% compared with 2012, till € 1,908 million. Net profit also descended 72.3%, till 50.03 million. The figures reflects the effect of the plastic subsidiary sale. The share is recovering from the negative trend since the maximum price reached in June 2011. Last March, it touched the lowest point and since then the trend is positive. The price increased in last 6 months around 15%.

Oil companies: under pressure

War in the oil branch: prices are pressuring producers as Saudi Arabia keeps on its policy. The drop in oil prices favors consumers, companies’ balance and results and countries’ balance of trade, but oil companies see how revenues are suffering.

WTI crude price historical chart

This chart from Macrotrends is very clear. West Texas Crude decreased a 26.5% since June. The sector has to deal with emerging companies from Asia and Latin America as with new alternative sources, as oil sands from Canada.

Last OPEC market report mentioned weak oil fundamentals, a stronger dollar and financial-related sell-offs as reasons for the pressure on the crude oil markets. On the other side, the organisation underlines the improvement on the demand side, thanks to a certain economic recovery. Low prices increase demand but also affect oil companies’ accounts. Where is the balance point?

The situation has implications in the markets. What is the evolution of the main oil companies? Let’s see the T-Advisor figures:

Exxon Mobile figures in T-Advisor

Exxon Mobile, the largest oil company, reduced in 2013 its revenues an 8.8%, till 420.8 bn and its net income a 27.4%, till US$ 32.5 bn, compared with the former year.

Royal Dutch Shell figures in T-Advisor

The British-Dutch company revenues were -3.4% lower in 2013 compared with 2012, till US$ 451.2 bn. Net income also reduced a 38.7%, till US$ 16.5 bn.

China Petroleum figures in T-Advisor

The Chinese group increased in 2013 the revenues a 2.8%, till 2,759.3 bn yuan. The net profit also improved slightly a 2.2%, till 188 bn yuan.

British Petroleum figures in T-Advisor

BP sales increased a 0.9% in 2013 compared with 2012, till US$ 379.1 bn. Net income more than doubled the result, till US$ 23.4 bn, a 112.8% more.

The comparison in the main data made by T-Advisor has the following results:

Performance

YTD

Volatility

YTD

Score

Liquidity

VaR

1 week

Exxon Mobile

-6.25 %

13.77%

5.60

10

-3.88%

Royal Dutch Shell

7.70%

14.20 %

3.88

10

-2.97%

China Petroleum

-2.21%

25.05%

3.85

10

-5.99%

British Petroleum

-10.34%

15.11%

1.92

10

-4.26%

Royal Dutch Shell has the only positive performance this year, while BP has the worst, although last year results were the best amongst the four. The whole branch has a very low score, affected by the negative results of the year. Lower oil price and new big competitors from emerging markets have consequences amongst this leading group. The most volatile and risky is China Petroleum, the largest Chinese energy group.

Market opportunities by T-Advisor: La Doria

T-Advisor, through its tool Market Opportunities, has detected the company La Doria, listed in the Italian stock exchange, as an opportunity for investment.

These are the main figures about performances and volatility in the last years:

La Doria main figures in T-Advisor

The chart shows the evolution in the last year:

La Doria chart in T-Advisor

The technical analysis reveals also more data:

La Doria technical analysis in T-Advisor

Finally, the risk analysis is as follows:

La Doria risk analytics in T-Advisor

La Doria is one of the largest Italian food producer. It is specialised in tomato-based products, canned vegetables and fruit juice. One of its main business is the production for private labels, mainly in UK. It has 5 factories in Italy and a commercial subsidiary in UK. Since 1996, La Doria has purchased several companies to reinforce its production lines.

Revenues in 2013 reached € 604.4 million, a 4.4% more than in 2012. Profits last year increased a 68.2%, till €21.2 million. Net income suffered hard the years 2011 and 2012, but the figures improves strongly in 2013. Share price multiplied three times since January 2013.

Ranking T-Advisor: Our best stocks and funds till October

What stocks and funds were the best in the ten first months of 2014? T-Advisor publishes its ranking taking into account the score. T-Advisor patented score provides an asset rating (bullish, neutral or bearish) based on key performance indicators and technical analysis.

The best shares till October were as follows:

Company Score Perf. YTD Volatility Weekly VaR Market

USA

Nike Inc

10

20.29%

17.36%

-4.20%

NYSE
Dominos Pizza

10

30.43%

18.02%

-3.01%

NYSE
Caseys General

10

17.77%

18.41%

-3.68%

Nasdaq
Amgen Inc

10

40.55%

20.60%

-3.06%

Nasdaq
IDEXX Labs

10

37.17%

20.99%

-4.20%

Nasdaq

EUROPE

Basware Oyj

10

60.60%

35.79%

-7.89%

Helsinki
CytoTools

10

133.53%

37.80%

-5.01%

Xetra
Elektrobit

10

19.54%

50.42%

-11.99%

Helsinki
Montupet

9.96

91.84%

54.11%

-11.25%

Euronext Paris
Virbac SA

9.94

11.91%

24.97%

-6.49%

Euronext Paris

ASIA

Ryohin Keikaku

10

29.28%

30.55%

-8.18%

Tokyo
Tobishima

10

62.84%

39.09%

-5.49%

Tokyo
Essex Bio-Tech

10

77.51%

44.93%

-9.76%

Hong Kong
Singapore Post

9.88

46.79%

15.49%

-2.20%

Singapur
Shimano

9.88

64.45%

29.11%

-7.28%

Tokyo

LATAM

Paz Corp

9.89

28.80%

22.98%

-4.74%

Santiago de Chile
Indiver

9.70

118.51%

54.32%

-4.77%

Santiago de Chile
Edegel

9.64

27.45%

20.83%

-5.59%

Lima
Cruz Blanca

9.63

8.69%

31.78%

-3.45%

Santiago de Chile
Corpbanca

9.46

7.29%

26.06%

-4.80%

Santiago de Chile

The best funds till October were as follows:

Fund Score Perf. YTD Volatility Weekly VaR Managing company

EQUITY FUNDS

Franklin Biotechnology Discovery Fund I

9.72

27.77%

25.14%

-6.34%

Franklin Templeton AM
JPM Global Healthcare A – EUR

9.67

31.09%

16.07%

-3.18%

JP Morgan AM
Franklin India Fund I EUR

9.42

55.94%

18.20%

-3.63%

Franklin Templeton AM
JPMorgan Funds – Highbridge US STEEP Fund

9.25

12.59%

10.22%

-2.27%

JP Morgan AM
JPM American Investment

9.21

14.60%

12.89%

-3.48%

JP Morgan AM
Schroder ISF US Smaller Companies I Cap

8.96

7.13%

12.54%

-3.13%

Schroder Investment
JPMorgan Funds – US Select 130/30 Fund

8.95

12.45%

12.17%

-2.59%

JP Morgan AM
JPMorgan Funds – Global Real Estate Securities Fund (USD)

8.92

13.48%

10.28%

-2.12%

JP Morgan AM
BGF US Growth A2 EUR

8.88

16.70%

15.82%

-3.69%

BlackRock Fund Managers
BGF World Technology A2 EUR

8.76

17.74%

15.15%

-4.09%

BlackRock Fund Managers

FIXED-INCOME

OM Glb Eq Ab Re — Accum.Ptg.Shs — Class -I- USD

8.86

6.56%

4.98%

-1.27%

Old Mutual Dublin Funds
BGF As Tig Bd A2C

8.66

9.19%

2.38%

-0.54%

BlackRock Fund Managers
SISF Global Bond USD Hdg I

8.54

7.75%

1.62%

-0.38%

Schroder Investment
BGF World Bond E2 EUR

8.49

16.38%

5.20%

-1.05%

BlackRock Fund Managers
AI – GLOBAL HIGH YIELD BOND FUND I

8.49

3.94%

6.96%

-0.64%

Aviva Funds
FF-ASIAN BOND Y

8.47

8.34%

2.16%

-0.35%

Fidelity
Invesco Global Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund- Accum [Lux] E

8.41

19.64%

5.17%

-1.11%

Invesco Asset Management
BGF  US Government Mortgage Fund E2 EUR

8.40

15.38%

5.57%

-1.15%

BlackRock Fund Managers
JPM Aggregate Bond A – USD

8.37

5.63%

1.79%

-0.35%

JP Morgan AM
FF-EMERGING MKT DEBT Y

8.36

10.52%

4.43%

-0.90

Fidelity

 

Robo-advisors: pros & cons

T-Advisor my portfolio tool in robo advisor

It is possibly the trending topic in the advisory world: the fight between humans and robots for the business. We hope that the fight will not end as in “Terminator” or “Matrix”. In fact, there is no reason to fight. Robo-advisors appeared some years ago to stay. They are not a kind of fashion trend, but a solution for a specific client’ profile. Moreover, they were not created to remove human advisors from the market, but there are some points of convergence between both.

First of all, we have to establish a categorization: not all robo-advisors are the same. Some companies have developed a pure automatic tool and the client has to do everything by himself or herself. Others have these tools and an online human advisor support. Finally, there are financial entities with online investment tools for their clients.

In any case, all of them have discovered a new world for common people: they can monitor steadily their investments. What are the main advantages of the robo-advisors?

  1. The fees are low and transparent. You pay for a package with a list of features. You know every time what you are paying for. Technology also reduces the costs. This is a pressure for human advisors, but it has a positive effect in this competitive market, as the less skilled will be out soon.
  2. Technology connects with the new generation. Older people used to opt for human contact, but Millenians are linked deeply with smartphones and tablets. Robo-advisors fit with their way of connection with the world.
  3. There is an improvement of the user experience. Clients have a 24/7 service to monitor their investments, to make changes and to manage their portfolios.
  4. Little investors have a chance. Traditional advisors accept only investors from a specific volume of assets. Little investors are not profitable for them and have found in the robo-advisors a way to control their wealth. In fact, robo-advisors have made finances more democratic.
  5. Clients feel the control of their investments. They access to a wide rage of organized relevant data with many helps to understand the concepts.

Robo-advisors offer several tools for self-directed investors

The cons argued by many people are focused on three points:

  1. There is no personal treatment and robots do not really know the wishes and aims of the clients. Well, we have to point out that robots do not appear by themselves, but they are made by humans. Developers are experts in finances with a long experience in investors’ needs. Of course, there is no voice behind the final product.
  2. Robo-advisors will show their weakness in a bear market. Let’s see, when it comes. These automatic systems have alert tools to warn the investor about a change anytime. What about human advisors in bear markets? We are sure that many people are not very happy with several of them. And other question: let’s think that there is a sudden stock fall and an advisor has to react for his, say, 10 clients. How fast has he to be to solve these 10 problems?
  3. The risk profiling is bad. If it is bad, it does not comply with the legal requirements, so it has to be warned. These companies design risks questionnaires to effectively comply with the rules.

Again, there are complementary points: different segments, support robot-human advisor… Time and market will drive future developments, but, in any case, there is place enough for both or a combination. The client will decide the best option that fits his or her needs.

Market opportunities by T-Advisor: Corpbanca

T-Advisor, through its tool Market Opportunities, has detected the company Corpbanca, listed in Santiago de Chile Stock Exchange, as an opportunity for investment.

These are the main figures about performances and volatility in the last years:

Corpbanca main data in T-Advisor

The chart shows the evolution in the last year:

Corpbanca chart in T-Advisor

The technical analysis reveals also more data:

Corpbanca technical analysis in T-Advisor

Finally, the risk analysis is as follows:

Corpbanca risk analysis in T-Advisor

Founded in 1971 as a local bank, Corpbanca is the 4th largest credit institution in Chile. Main shareholders are the chilean family Saieh. Its growth was sustained by some purchases, as it did in Venezuela (although sold afterwards) and in Colombia. This last one needed an important capital increase in 2013. It has recently merged the chilean subsidiary of the brazilian Banco Itaú.

Bank revenues increase last year 32%, till 1,007.7 billion pesos, compared with the figures in 2012. Net income also jumped 40%, till 167.9 billion pesos. The share price improved around a 50% since August 2013.

Global market trends: markets in October

October is generally known in the stock exchanges as an unstable month. This year was not an exception in this trend. Market trends were influenced by economic data and the ebola crisis, which hit unexpectedly some developed countries. Just to get an idea about the volatility last month: Dow Jones moved more than 1,500 points, S&P highest and lowest marks were between 200 points and Nasdaq moved more than 500 points. The debate was whether the negative trend was a correction or a real downward trend after these positive years.

Global trends in T-Advisor

The correction in US exchanges last month stopped around the second week and the markets turned again into positive. This trend was also pushed by the good third quarter GDP, which exceeded the analysts’ predictions. Another relief was that the Federal Reserve announced that interest rates would maintain the current situation despite the end of the quantitative easing policy.

Market trends in US in T-Advisor

Europe lived the worst situation, as the constitution of the new European Commission led by Mr. Juncker is taking a very long time. This is important, as the European Union has an unstable balance between common institutions and countries’ interests. On the other hand, the German machine is failing. After the fall in the second quarter, it is expected that third quarter GDP will confirm another recession (technically, two negative quarters in a row). The perfect storm took place with the economic crisis in France, the unstable political situation in Italy and the results of the bank stress test, which did not totally clear up doubts. Banks suffered a hard correction.

Europe market trends in T-Advisor

Latam main news were related again to Brazil. Socialist candidate Marina Silva, who was expected to be in the second round in the presidential election, lost this chance as socialdemocrat Aecio Neves obtained a better result to fight against President Rousseff. Finally, Rousseff gained a second term but with a very little difference (51- 49). Markets bet for Neves, with a more center-right programme, and reacted negatively after Rouseff’s victory.

Latam market trends in T-Advisor

In Asia, warning signals came again from China, as the economy is growing at a lower pace. Some figures offer many doubts about a future evolution. Crossing the sea, Japan has reacted with more Abenomics (the expansive programme organized by Prime Minister Abe). Bank of Japan will enlarge the monetary expansive programme in another attempt to move the economy of the second largest Asian giant, which lives in an eternal crisis since the 90s.

Market trends in Asia in T-Advisor

Investment exercise: saving for a house

Your house, your apartment… that is part of your life and your worries. Where to live? What can I pay? How can I manage to save money and buy that house I have seen in an ad? Let’s begin with a plan. When a person takes a financial decision, he or she should not improvise, because he or she has many chances… to fail. A plan is necessary: how to organize my savings? Any projections? What about the inflation effect?

T-Advisor has developed an investment planner for up to 7 different investment plans. Let’s try out with housing. First of all, you have to answer these questions:

  • How much money do you want to save to buy your house or flat?
  • How long are you going to save?
  • How much money do you have already for this goal?
  • How much do you expect to save every month or every year?

Investment planner first screen in T-Advisor

Be realistic, look up your accounts, sum up the whole information for yourself and begin to fill in the fields. Let’s put an example: Your house costs averagely 200,000 euros. You need around 30% of this amount, because you are going to ask for a mortgage with a credit limit of 80% of the price, but you need some more money for taxes and associated expenses. So, you need around 60,000 euros. You are married, so two people contribute for the goal with 900 euros monthly: your expectation is that you reach it in 5 years, because you have already saved 15,000 euros.

With these figures, our investment planner will ask you about your investment profile: how risky are you? You want to avoid high risks, but you are aware that a very conservative profile will perform slower. So, you choose “moderate”.  If you are not sure, you can answer a short test.

Risk profile T-Advisor investment planner

Finally, you have a chart that reports you about the chance that you have to reach your target. In this case, it is greater than 95%. The chart reports also about neutral and pessimistic scenarios. These figures are obtained through statistical calculations based on historical data. You can always set the parameters to evaluate other cases. You have also advanced settings to evaluate inflation and taxes effects.

Investment plan T-Advisor

Last screen shows you a possible allocation of your initial contribution to your investment plan with a projection about highest annual gains and losses.

Investment allocation plan T-Advisor

Your wished house can be easier to buy if you develop your own plan. This is the reason why we offer these tools for free, so that everyone can access to professional solutions to success in their financial decisions.

Market opportunities by T-Advisor: Cheung Kong Infrastructure

T-Advisor, through its tool Market Opportunities, has detected the company Cheung Kong Infrastructure, listed in Hong Kong Stock Exchange, as an opportunity for investment.

These are the main figures about performances and volatility in the last years:

Cheung Kong Infrastructure main figures in T-Advisor

The chart shows the evolution in the last year:

Cheung Kong Infrastructure chart in T-Advisor

The technical analysis reveals also more data:

Cheung Kong Infrastructure technical analysis in T-Advisor

Finally, the risk analysis is as follows:

Cheung Kong Infrastructure risk analysis in T-Advisor

Cheung Kong Infrastructure Holdings Limited (“CKI” or the “Group”) is the largest publicly listed infrastructure company in Hong Kong with diversified investments in energy infrastructure, transportation infrastructure, water infrastructure, waste management and infrastructure related business. Operating in Hong Kong, Mainland China, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Australia, New Zealand and Canada, it is a leading player in the global infrastructure arena.

Group turnover increased in 2013 a 22,24%, till HK$ 5,018 million, compared with the former year. Group year profit also jumped a 22,2%, till HK$ 12,312 million. The company has more profit than turnover, as it has also incomes from results of associates and joint ventures. CKI doubled its turnover and profits in the last 10 years, but multiplied 10 times the incomes from associates. Listed on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong in July 1996, CKI’s market capitalisation was over HK$130 billion as of September 30, 2014. The share also doubled the price since 2010.