Monthly Archives: June 2014

Market opportunities by T-Advisor: Silver Wheaton

T-Advisor, through its tool Market Opportunities, has detected the company Silver Wheaton, listed in Toronto Stock Exchange as an opportunity for investment.

These are the main figures about performances and volatility in the last years:

Silver Wheaton main figures in T-Advisor

The technical analysis reveals also more data:

Silver Wheaton technical analysis in T-Advisor

The chart shows the evolution i the last year:

Silver Wheaton chart in T-Advisor

Finally, the risk analysis is as follows:

Silver Wheaton risk analysis in T-Advisor

Founded in 2004, Silver Wheaton is the largest precious metal streaming company in the world. The company has entered into a number of agreements where, in exchange for an upfront payment, it has the right to purchase, at a low fixed cost, all or a portion of the silver and/or gold production from several high-quality mines located in politically stable regions around the globe. Silver Wheaton currently has streaming agreements for 19 operating mines and five development stage projects. 75% of its revenue derives from the sale of silver and approximately 25% of its revenue from the sale of gold.

Sales in 2013 summed up US$ 706 million, a 16,8% less than in 2012. Net earnings also decreased a 36%, till US$ 375,5 million. Silver Wheaton has been affected by the drop of metal prices, but its mines have increased notably their production, what positions the company proggresivelly as an important player in the market. Silver prices topped in 2011 and got down afterwards, but it is going up from May and rounding its year high.

Gamification: investments are a serious game

One of the multiples changes produced as a result of the development of Internet is the use of games in non-gaming fields. That is known as gamification. Through this idea, several companies try to promote certain behaviours or uses amongst its customers.

How to use it in investments? There are some ways, as points, badges or the fulfilment of a line with several processes, for instance. From the very beginning, T-Advisor has used it for the portfolios. Every user receives a score to learn about how well he or she is doing with his or her assets.

Gamification in T-Advisor with score

Gamification in T-Advisor with tools for score

This score has a double purpose: to report about the quality of the portfolio related to some ratios and to motivate the user to research into our tools to improve the results. At the end, more points will also mean a better performance.

Our commitment with gamification as a useful strategy for our users will continue. The score is just the first step. We are going to add soon a new module for investment planning that proposes also gamification tools. Investments have always a purpose: retirement, a house, a car, a journey… Aims are so different as people are. The idea of our planner is to help people focus their personal targets just fulfilling several steps. Doing it in an enjoyable way will motivate and increase the personal engagement.

Gamification with investment planner in T-Advisor

This will not be our last development in this direction. The addition of gamification tools in serious areas has succeeded to develop personal skills. This is our internal goal: that our users develop their investment skills in an easy way taking into account our advanced suite full of relevant data for them.

Market opportunities by T-Advisor: Kinepolis

T-Advisor, through its tool Market Opportunities, has detected the company Kinepolis, listed in Euronext Brussels as an opportunity for investment.

These are the main figures about performances and volatility in the last years:

Kinepolis main data in T-Advisor

The technical analysis reveals also more data:

Kinepolis technical analysis in T-Advisor

The chart shows the evolution i the last year:

Kinepolis chart in T-Advisor

Finally, the risk analysis is as follows:

Kinepolis risk analysis in T-Advisor

Kinepolis is a belgian cinema owner with international presence in 5 European countries. The company runs 23 multiplexes with modern projection technologies. Besides the main activity, Kinepolis  is also active in film distribution, screen advertising sales, cinema property management, and the sale and installation of projection and sound equipment. It receives 21 million customers every year.

Key figures show that the company decreased its revenues last year a 3.3%, till € 246 million, but the profit grew a 5.1%, till €37.5 million (€6.91 per share). The company strengthened its position since the beginning of the world economic crisis in 2007, as the revenues increased a 16% and net income improved a 155%. The company decided in the last general meeting a share split 1 to 5.

Construction industry: rebuilding after the crisis

The construction industry has deeply suffered the economic crisis, as it depends mainly from the public budgets. Bigger works are contracted by public administrations and the crisis cut enormously the money disposals for this aim. Chinese companies emerge and a PwC report focuses the business in the long term in China and India, apart from US.

Another report, that analyzed the outlook for 2013 and 2014, made a study about the evolution of this sector in the crisis years in different world markets. The figures are very clear: the worst markets for this sector were the European countries and the world industry recovery will be low.

However, although the crisis hit hard, the biggest listed companies in this sector are Europeans.

Construction: Vinci main data in T-Advisor

The French group Vinci increased in 2013 the revenues a 4.4%, till €40.3 bn and the net income also grew a 2.3%, till €1,962 million.

Construction: Hochtief main figures

The German company Hochtief improved in 2013 the sales slightly a 0.6%, till €25.6 bn and the net income increased a 10.3%, till 171.2 million.

Construction: ACS main figures

The Spanish group ACS reduced in 2013 its revenues a 0.1%, till €38,3 bn and the net income jumped from the former losses till benefits: 702 million. ACS has expanded its business with the buy of part of Hochtief.

Construction: Fluor main figures

The American group Fluor reduced also slightly in 2013 its sales a 0.8%, till €27.3 bn and the net income increased strongly a 44%, till 823 million.

The comparison in the main data made by T-Advisor has the following results:

Performance

YTD

Volatility

YTD

Score

Liquidity

VaR

1 week

Vinci

16.89%

12.58%

6.69

9

-3.15%

Hochtief

5.96%

22.69%

6.30

8

-6.46%

ACS

35.29%

21.66%

7.69

9

-6.25%

Fluor

-3.08%

21.84%

7.32

9

-4.81%

The main construction companies have a very similar score and liquidity, showing the market view about the whole sector: alert and expectancy after the crisis hit. However, the performances are diverse, as ACS pushes strongly, while Fluor goes back. ACS share fell down hard in the last years, while Fluor maintain the stock very regular. It is to underline that Vinci shows a low volatility in its sector compared with its competitors.

Market opportunities by T-Advisor: Alsea

T-Advisor, through its tool Market Opportunities, has detected the company Alsea, listed in the Mexican Stock Exchange, as an opportunity for investment.

These are the main figures about performances and volatility in the last years:

Alsea main figures in T-Advisor

The technical analysis reveals also more data:

Alsea technical analysis in T-Advisor

The chart shows the evolution i the last year:

Alsea chart in T-Advisor

Finally, the risk analysis is as follows:

Alsea risk analysis in T-Advisor

Alsea is the most important restaurant franchise in Latin America. It has a broad brand portfolio in fast food, casual food and coffe shops, as Domino’s Pizza, Starbucks, Burger King, Chili’s, California Pizza Kitchen, P.F. Chang’s, Pei Wei, Italianni´s, The Cheesecake Factory, Vips and El Portón. The company has business in Mexico, Colombia, Chile and Argentina.

The group has recently bought Vips restaurant chain and is ready to settle in Brazil. The revenues increased in 2013 a 19%, till 15,7 bn Mexican Pesos. If the figure is compared with 2011, the increase is up to 50%. The net income was 663 million Mexican Pesos, a 65% more. The stock price multiplied 6 times in the last 5 years.

Alpha and beta: Greeks in my portfolio

Two main concepts in the modern portfolio theory are the alpha and beta measures. They give the investor some information about the asset (a share, a fund, an ETF, for instance) risk compared with its benchmark, but both are quite different.

alpha y beta in T-Advisor

f we take our T-Advisor screen and choose an asset (for this case, Vestas Wind System), the T-Report from it has a chapter titled “Relative performance vs index”. We already wrote about  correlation. Now, let’s explain what alpha and beta are and why they are important references for investors.

Alpha shows the outperformance of the asset compared to its benchmark for an assumed risk. In the picture, the figure is 0.0197. That means: this asset performs better than the reference index. The higher, the better. This additional performance has to do with other reasons not linked with the benchmark. This measure appears also for funds and portfolios. A way to discover if the fund manager is good is just looking the alpha.

What about beta? In this case, this figure measures the volatility or how much the asset varies in its price when the benchmark moves up or down 1%. If it is positive, the asset varies in the same direction as the benchmark. If it is negative, the variation is the opposite.

For instance, in the example above, beta is 1.27. This means that the asset is more volatile than the index: when the index changes 1%, the asset does 1.27%. If the ratio would be less than 1, that means that the asset has a low volatility.

This is the theory, but what about the practice? Just remember some ideas:

  1. Look for positives alphas but beware the beta together, because beta points how much risk you are accepting.
  2. For bullish markets, look for assets with high positive betas.
  3. On the contrary, for bearish markets, choose low or negatives betas. In this last case, the correlation is inverse.

In all cases, the investor is choosing the risk exposure. T-Advisor provides the figures. How much you are exposed is a question of your own decision.

Ranking T-Advisor: best European stocks in May

What European stocks have been the best this year till May? T-Advisor publishes its ranking taking into account the score. T-Advisor patented score provides an asset rating (bullish, neutral or bearish) based on key performance indicators and technical analysis.

Our ranking also considers the trendslope, that means, the strength of the share trend.

The best shares till May were as follows:

Company Score Perf. YTD Volatility VaR weekly Trendslope Market
Readsoft AB

10.00

101.01%

85.21%

-9.62%

9.68

Stockholm
Gozde Girisim

10.00

56.59%

63.54%

-15.14

6.79

IMKB Istanbul
DLSI

10.00

98.08%

40.60%

-4.76%

5.88

Euronext Paris
OTC

10.00

41.67%

41.25%

-8.73%

3.86

Euronext Brussels
Vestas Wind System

10.00

82.71%

38.55%

-7.62%

3.69

Copenhagen
Vestas Wind Systems

10.00

85.02%

40.38%

8.19%

3.64

Xetra
Ege Endustri

10.00

80.89%

43.39%

-10.27%

3.55

IMKB stanbul
Turbon Intl

10.00

58.92%

25.25%

-5.18%

3.32

Deutsche Boerse
Cosmo Pharmaceutic

10.00

67.12%

31.54%

-4.48%

3.32

Swiss Exchange
Dialog Semicon

10.00

44.90%

38.41%

-7.51%

3.03

Xetra
CAT oil

10.00

-6.53%

48.53%

-13.88%

3.01

Xetra
GFT Technologies

10.00

56.59%

30.78%

-4.38%

2.64

Xetra
Nordnet

10.00

26.92%

34.24%

-5.43%

2.36

Stockholm
MGI Coutier

10.00

51.86%

38.76%

-8.81%

2.35

Euronext Paris
Grammer

10.00

23.96%

34.20%

-8.48%

2.33

Xetra
Vitrolife

10.00

23.34%

34.72%

-7.66%

2.32

Stockholm
Intercont Hotels

10.00

14.66%

19.68%

-3.92%

2.29

London
AND Intl Pub

10.00

1.84%

48.28%

-10.11%

2.10

Euronext Amsterdam
GW Pharmaceuticals

10.00

70.28%

81.29%

-14.94%

2.08

London
IC Companys AS

9.98

17.89%

28.90%

-5.52%

1.88

Copenhagen

Market opportunities by T-Advisor: Cedar Fair

T-Advisor, through its tool Market Opportunities, has detected the company Cedar Fair, listed in NYSE, as an opportunity for investment.

These are the main figures about performances and volatility in the last years:

Cedar Fair main figures in T-Advisor

The technical analysis reveals also more data:

Technical analysis Cedar Fair in T-Advisor

The chart shows the evolution i the last year:

Chart Cedar Fair in T-Advisor

Finally, the risk analysis is as follows:

Risk analysis in T-Advisor

Cedar Fair LP is one of the largest regional amusement-resort operators in the world. The Partnership owns and operates 11 amusement parks, three outdoor water parks, one indoor water park and five hotels. The revenues in 2013 summed up US$ 1.1 bn and the net income was US$ 108 million, a 6.2% more compared with 2012.

World global market trends in May

Markets improved slightly their bullish trend, always with very low ratios, as there are still doubts amongst the investors about the strength of the economic recovery, mainly in US. There is also another ingredient in this financial mixture: US markets are touching their highest levels and many analysts are wondering when the correction will come.

Global market trends in T-Advisor

US market trend in T-Advisor

But the eyes are on Europe. ECB meets tomorrow to take possibly historical decisions in its monetary policy. Low inflation figures are warning European authorities about the risk of deflation. One of the main points is the exchange rate with other currencies. Europe is importing deflation with the high rate against dollar and others and exporters are suffering to sell abroad, apart from the deeper trouble: the credit restrictions. These problems have effects in the economic development and employment perspectives. The fear is that the ECB will not be tomorrow brave enough and disappoints the markets, which are really expecting many measures, not only a rate cut.

Europe market trend in T-Advisor

The bullish trend improved also slightly in Asia. The main news was the election of the conservative Narendra Modi in India as prime minister. Markets have high expectations about him and Indian market experienced a strong bullish trend this month, so T-Advisor figures. The results of the election in Indonesia were also positively welcomed by the investors. However, Japan and China carried on their weak market trend.

Asia market trend in T-Advisor

Finally, LatAm showed the best trend in world markets pushing by Argentina. Its government announced an agreement with its lenders to pay the debt. Argentina was the instability focus in the lasts years in the continent and the deal about the debt opens new expectations for investors. On the other side, Brazil remains quite weak.

LatAm market trend in T-Advisor

Market opportunities by T-Advisor: Sinotrans

T-Advisor, through its tool Market Opportunities, has detected the company Sinotrans, listed in Hong Kong Exchange, as an opportunity for investment.

These are the main figures about performances and volatility in the last years:

Sinotrans main data in T-Advisor

The technical analysis reveals also more data:

Technical analysis Sinotrans in T-Advisor

The chart shows the evolution i the last year:

Chart Sinotrans in T-Advisor

Finally, the risk analysis is as follows:

Company risk analysis in T-Advisor

Sinotrans is one of the largest logistic companies in China. It provides integrated logistics service to  customers including sea, air and road transportation, storage and terminal services, express services, shipping agency and freight forwarding business. In 2013, the company obtained RMB 47,768 million in revenues and RMB 844.5 million in net profit.