Monthly Archives: May 2014

Pharmaceuticals, a branch with several challenges

Recent Pfizer attempt to buy AstraZeneca brings back to news the pharmaceutical branch. This industrial sector has always a defensive perspective for investors, as healthcare is needed even in crisis times. American and European companies broadly dominate the ranking, but there is a beginning of some movement in emerging countries.

A PwC report points out three challenges in the branch: rising customer expectations, poor scientific productivity and management culture sclerosis. These aspects are quite important, as the sector depends from innovation and high quality staff to develop its business. But there is also a deeper trend: emerging markets begin to have a higher demand, as their population has increased its purchasing power.

But what is happening to five of the main pharmaceuticals in the markets? Let’s have a look in T-Advisor.

Pharmaceuticals: Pfizer figures in T-Advisor

Pfizer reduced its revenues 6% in 2013, till US$ 51,584 million. On the contrary, the net income increased 51%, till US$ 22,003 million (US$ 3.19 per share).

Pharmaceuticals: Novartis figures in T-Advisor

Novartis improved its sales 2% in 2013, till US$ 57,920 million. The net income reduced a little 0.3%, till US$ 12,533 million (US$ 5.09 per share).

Pharmaceuticals: Sanofi figures in T-Advisor

Sanofi reduced its revenues 0.5% in 2013, till € 32,951 million. The net income worsened 17.5%, till € 6,687 million (€ 5.05 per share).

Pharmaceuticals: Glaxo figures in T-Advisor

Glaxo’s turnover in 2013 increased slightly 0.3%, till GBP 26,505 million. The net income improved 20.8%, till GBP 5,436 million (GBP 1.10 per share).

Pharmaceuticals: Bayer figures in T-Advisor

The comparison in the main date made by T-Advisor has the following results:

Performance

YTD

Volatility

YTD

Score

Liquidity

VaR

1 week

Pfizer

-3.72

18.96%

3.54

10

-4.81%

Novartis

12.23%

10.45%

8.80

9

-2.82%

Sanofi

1.21%

17.08%

5.16

10

-4.63%

GlaxoSmithKline

1.43%

15.56%

5.35

9

-3.33%

Bayer

3.78%

21.05%

7.94

10

-5.35%

Pfizer performance in 2014 suffers from its failed AstraZeneca merge.  Sanofi, Glaxo and Bayer show a little development with very modest scores and performances. The better is the Swiss Novartis, which has increased powerfully its performance in this year and shows an interesting score and VaR. The recent purchase of Glaxo’s oncology business has been very welcomed in the markets. The sector will surely experience new market movements.

Market opportunities by T-Advisor: Semperit

T-Advisor, through its tool Market Opportunities, has detected the company Semperit, listed in  Vienna Exchange as an opportunity for investment.

These are the main figures about performances and volatility in the last years:

Main data Semperit in T-Advisor

The technical analysis reveals also more data:

Technical analysis Semperit by T-Advisor

The chart shows the evolution i the last year:

Chart by T-Advisor

Finally, the risk analysis is as follows:

Risk analysis in T-Advisor

Semperit Holding is an Austrian group that develops, produces, and sells highly specialised rubber and plastic products for the medical and industrial sectors. It employs more than 10,500 people and has 22 manufacturing facilities worldwide. In 2013 the Group generated revenue of €906 million and a net income of €54.9 million.

Managing liquid assets with T-Advisor

Liquid assets are important in a company flow manage. After considering the own strategy related to charges and payments, the company has to take into account how to manage the cash. How to store it? This liquidity has today a very low return if it is stored in accounts or fix-term assets, because the interest rates are in historical low points. On the contrary, there are custody fees and at the end you can pay to keep your money safe instead of getting profitability of it.

A portfolio strategy for liquid assets can be an interesting alternative. First of all, the company has to define the charges and payments terms and how much cash can accumulate averagely. This money can be saved in different portfolios depending the targets: for instance, a portfolio to manage salary payments, a portfolio to accumulate charges from a specific customer from who we are getting regular incomes… That should be defined depending the company business, the customer structure and the cash flow, amongst other ratios.

We have the target (invest in portfolios), we have the strategy (how much money in which kind of portfolios), but now we need the tool. In T-Advisor, we have developed specific tools that help companies manage portfolios. What do you have to take into account when configuring it?

  • Your risk profile: if you are conservative, look for assets with a low VaR and volatility
  • The asset trend and cycle: watch out it, because if you build a portfolio to obtain a performance in a short term (for instance, a month), this point is highly important.
  • The portfolio smart benchmark: you should compare your performance with other indexes
  • The diversification: avoid focusing in only one kind of asset or market.

With the time, you will manage the portfolios, helping yourself with alerts and modifying the portfolio composition with the optimizer.

Our proposal is far from being weird. It is applied by lots of companies and it is possible to be applied in little and middle companies. As an example, read what an international institution is doing with its liquid assets: just what we have already explained you.

In T-Advisor we have several model portfolios that could be an idea. Our conservative portfolio has a 1 year VaR -2.73% and the return year-to-date is 5.28% (with an historical return of 21.28% in the last three years).

Liquid assets: T-Advisor conservative portfolio

Market opportunities by T-Advisor: Localiza Rent

T-Advisor, through its tool Market Opportunities, has detected the company Localiza Rent, listed in Sao Paulo Exchange as an opportunity for investment.

These are the main figures about performances and volatility in the last years:

Main figures Localiza Rent in T-Advisor

The technical analysis reveals also more data:

Technical analysis Localiza Rent in T-Advisor

The chart shows the evolution i the last year:

Chart Localiza Rent in T-Advisor

Finally, the risk analysis is as follows:

Risk analysis in T-Advisor

Localiza Rent NM is a car rental company from Belo Horizonte, in Brazil. It has three main branches: car rental, fleet rental and franchising. The net income in 2013 was R$384.3 million, a 59.5% more than in 2012.

T-Advisor tools: a suite for investment success

T-Advisor investment tools

Investors are always worried about how to manage their assets to obtain the best results to achieve their financial goals. T-Advisor is the suite that fits to do it. We have been writing for six months about some of our tools. What are they?

First of all, T-Advisor is a suite focused in portfolio management. A portfolio has many advantages, as it lets the investor allocate different assets, organize its goals and rely on a passive style. After creating the portfolio, T-Advisor offers some tools to improve the management and the results:

  • Smart benchmark: It mixes the different indexes benchmarks in the proportion you have in the portfolio and obtains a composite benchmark. Very useful to know if you are on track.
  • Portfolio score: A personal reference that reports about the quality of our investments related to some measures, as risks, performance, diversification and trend.
  • Value at risk and diversification benefit: an investor has to be always aware about the risk of losing. Value a risk defines the probability of losing money in a period and diversification benefits measures the risk difference between having or not a diversified portfolio.
  • Optimizer: a tool to adjust the investment goals and discover the assets to change to get that aim.
  • Alerts: our tool warns about different situations for our assets, as stop-loss or trend change.

In T-Advisor, we think that information and figures are the main resources for investors, but this data without processing are not useful. T-Advisor organizes these resources to help the investor take decisions.

Another main strong points in T-Advisor have to do with resources that help the investor find new opportunities:

  • Investment alternatives: T-Advisor has three ways to find new chances to improve investors’ results: the T-Report, the investment ideas tool and the investment opportunities warnings. T-Advisor also reports about the dates for the maximum benefit and the 5%-10%-15% targets, always with the reference of the system entry price.
  • Model portfolios: our system has 9 different model portfolios depending the markets or the investor profile, which are reviewed and rebalanced every two months.

Finally, T-Advisor has also a special development for financial advisors and for professional uses. The main strength is the financial planning tool for their customers.

Is this the end? Absolutely. T-Advisor has still more tools and functionalities to discover their users. We will continue showing them.

Market opportunities by T-Advisor: Emmi

T-Advisor, through its tool Market Opportunities, has detected the company Emmi AG, listed in the Swiss Exchange as an opportunity for investment.

These are the main figures about performances and volatility in the last years:

Emmi main figures in T-Advisor

The technical analysis reveals also more data:

Emmi technical analysis in T-Advisor

The chart shows the evolution i the last year:

Emmi chart in T-Advisor

Finally, the risk analysis is as follows:

Risk analysis in T-Advisor

Emmi AG is the largest Swiss company specialised in dairy products, as processed milk, yogurt and cheese. It has subsidiaries in 13 countries. Its net profit in 2013 reached CHF 104.6 million, a 1.5% less than the previous year.

Ranking T-Advisor: the best shares and funds till April

What shares and funds were the best in the first four months of this year? T-Advisor publishes its ranking taking into account the score. T-Advisor patented score provides an asset rating (bullish, neutral or bearish) based on key performance indicators and technical analysis.

The best shares till April were as follows:

Company Score Perf. YTD Volatility VaR weekly Index correlation Market
Magellan Petro

10

125.24%

40.43%

-5.24%

0.06

Nasdaq
RTX Telecom

10

97.08%

49.69%

-6.67%

0.20

Copenhagen
Natural Health Trend

10

92.18%

67.42%

-13.74%

0.27

Nasdaq
Montupet

10

88.92%

43.97%

-6.29%

0.46

Paris
Le Belier

10

80.48%

54.02%

-8.95%

0.33

Paris
Actielec Tech

10

75.84%

60.31%

-8.05%

0.36

Paris
RF Micro Devices

10

68.41%

39.41%

-7.70%

0.14

Nasdaq
La Doria SpA

10

57.46%

34.35%

-3.23%

0.33

Milan
Vestas Wind Systems

10

54.74%

44.57%

-8.10%

0.39

Copenhagen
Paramount Rsc

10

53.80%

22.59%

-5.40%

0.24

Toronto
MGI Goutier SA

10

52.73%

37.14%

-6.22%

0.34

Paris
Arseus

10

50.94%

30.85%

-5.66%

0.36

Brussels
BE Semiconduct

10

44.91%

27.43%

-5.11%

0.35

Amsterdam
Gozde Girisim

10

44.58%

64.21%

-15.14%

0.55

Istanbul
Brembo SpA

10

41.47%

31.00%

-5.17%

0.41

Milan
Haldex AB

10

39.16%

37.45%

-7.20%

0.37

Stockholm
Burelle SA

10

38.69%

36.78%

-6.56%

0.31

Paris
Isra Vision System

10

36.97%

30.08%

-7.07%

0.18

Frankfurt
Esker

10

35.77%

20.11%

-5.12%

0.20

Paris
Paragon AG

10

31.58%

25.75%

-6.10%

0.36

Frankfurt

The best funds till April were the following ones:

Fund Score Perf. YTD Volatility VaR weekly Managing company
BR UK Dyn GBP-D-Ac

9.43

2.45%

83.18%

-2.81%

BlackRock
Black UK Dynam

9.42

2.42%

69.05%

-2.83%

BlackRock
MURC.INT.GTZO.II

9.03

7.77%

6.25%

-0.12%

Ahorro Corporación Gestion
SISF Middle East EUR I Acc

9.02

19.95%

17.45%

-5.19%

Schroder Investment
Jupiter Primadona

9.01

-2.01%

455.82%

-2.51%

BlackRock
SISF Middle East I Sh

8.92

20.87%

17.77%

-4.55%

Schroder Investment
BR UK Dyn GBP-D-

8.78

2.47%

69.27%

-2.82%

BlackRock
SISF Middle East EUR C Sh

8.71

19.51%

17.42%

-5.18%

Schroder Investment
SISF Middle East C Sh

8.60

20.35%

17.73%

-4.56%

Schroder Investment
SISF Middle East A Sh

8.44

20.10%

17.71%

-4.57%

Schroder Investment
SISF Middle East EUR A1 Sh

8.43

19.08%

17.41%

-5.18%

Schroder Investment
SISF Middle East EUR B Sh

8.40

19.00%

17.39%

-5.24%

Schroder Investment
SISF Middle East A1 Sh

8.33

19.90%

17.77%

-4.55%

Schroder Investment
SISF Middle East B Sh

8.29

19.88%

17.76%

-4.63%

Schroder Investment
Carmignac Euro Entrepreneurs C

8.27

8.80%

11.71%

-2.88%

Carmignac
Elcano Inv Fin – Sh

8.16

1.70%

9.78%

-2.44%

Credit Suisse Gestion
JPMorgan Funds – Africa Equity Fund

8.16

1.21%

12.93%

-2.91%

JP Morgan Asset
JPMorgan Funds – US Value Fund

8.14

3.23%

9.92%

-2.21%

JP Morgan Asset
JPM Emerging Middle East Equity A – EUR

8.12

18.24%

20.51%

-4.84%

JP Morgan Asset
Blackrock High-SBI

8.12

0.65%

173.92%

-3.99%

BlackRock

World global trends: markets in April

The main point to take into account in the market evolution in April has to do with the US. If we compare the figures with last month, the country trend changed from 40% to 25%. That was a drop! Such decrease is related to the economic outlook in the (still, but probably for short time) first world economy.

Global Trends april in T-Advisor

If we take a look at the chart in the American market, there is a downward line at the beginning of the month. March employment data published in those days warned investors about the recovery, because they were far from expectations.

US Global trends in april T-Advisor

These figures were confirmed by the GDP published at the end of April, the weakest in three years. Under these conditions, Fed Chairwoman Yellen and the FOMC were cautious in the statement on 30th. A rate increase has been delayed.

On the other side of the Atlantic, European markets are still weak, partly because of the contradictory statements from ECB chairman and its members. Although Mr. Draghi has insisted in the readiness for non-conventional measures, Germans are reluctant, despite the low inflation very far from the 2% bar.

Europe global trends in april T-Advisor

Emerging markets were also bearish. Asia suffered from the weakness of the American markets and also from some data from China. Last March, these exchanges benefit from the good expectations about the elections in Indonesia and India, but it must be waited for the results, as the process in India lasts a month and Indonesia publishes the results in some days, four weeks after the vote.

Asia global trends in april T-Advisor

Finally, the lowest point reached in February was the beginning of a recovery in LatAm markets. They registered the best position (29%) amongst all regions. The low prices in this area are moving positively the markets and some of these countries have the best positions in the T-Advisor global trends, as Argentina or Mexico.

LatAm global trends in april T-Advisor

Market opportunities by T-Advisor: Petkim

T-Advisor, through its tool Market Opportunities, has detected the company Petkim, listed in Istanbul as an opportunity for investment.

These are the main figures about performances and volatility in the last years:

Petkim main figures in T-Advisor

The technical analysis reveals also more data:

Technical analysis Petkim in T-Advisor

The chart shows the evolution i the last year:

Petkim chart in T-Advisor

Finally, the risk analysis is as follows:

Petkim risk analysis in T-Advisor

Petkim is the main petrochemical industry in Turkey. It has a wide range of products derivated from petrol. Last year net profit doubled the figures compared to 2012.