Economic outlook for 2014, following the main institutions’ projections, is more positive than the years before. The slope upwards is far from being strong, but there is a consensus in some points.
First of all, US will be back to growth, with projections over 2.5% for the GDP next year. The more optimistic is the Federal Reserve, with a perspective between 2.8% and 3.2%. It is not very surprising, as this institution decided yesterday to reduce the quantitative easing programme. The Fed sustained that the economic improvement is “consistent”. The outlook for the OECD is also similar to the Fed. Just the IMF is a bit far, because its last projection was in October, in the days of the Administration shutdown.
Secondly, the Eurozone will have a low growth for 2014. It also surprises that the ECB is the more optimistic (1.1% GDP growth) against the OECD and the IMF, which agreed in this projection in 1.0%. Last monthly bulletin from the ECB stated that the risks for the Eurozone are still on the downside. The central bank underlined the uncertainties in the global money and financial market.
The point is that the general growth pace is still slow. Emerging economies will suffer in 2014 a slower growth and there are doubts about their reaction with a further tapering from the Federal Reserve and the instability in the currency markets. What Japan refers, Abenomics (the economic policy measures developed by Primer Minister Abe) will hit hard in the inflation, as a result of the monetary expansion, but the country will return slightly to growth.
In any case, the main institutions do not close the crisis yet. Although all try to show a more positive tone, the risks are still persistent, mainly in the credit markets and the investment, but also in the consumption, affected by the general uncertainty. Finally, the point in 2014 is still in the monetary policy measures, as all market agents react strongly to every decision and comments from the central banks.