Daily Archives: November 21, 2013

ETF flows follow the US hesitations

ETF flows: World map with asset share in areas

ETF industry changes the strength of their inflows following US hesitations and sighs. The QE tapering or not, the debt ceiling, the continuous uncertainty in the American economic policy conditioned last six months for ETF investors.

The effects are clear, because as our chart shows, 70% of assets market share are on Americans hands. BlackRock report on flows last October reveals that the industry counted $24.3 bn since October, 17th, because traders were waiting for a solution in Washington between Rep’s and Dem’s.

Between January and October and compared with the same period of 2012, ETF flows on equities increased in all world areas but emerging markets, where the trend is beginning to change. After a strong start in 2013, there was a shift in the line, stronger in summer. Investors are now attracted by low valuations.

US equity ETF focused on large-cap and mid-cap, with an important contribution of technology and consumer non-cyclicals. Moreover, assets are near $1 trillion, helped by double digits growths and the current records in the S&P500.

In Europe, equity products pushed up after the stagnation in the first half of the year. Flows on Europe reached $7.9 bn in October, a new record after four consecutive months with increases. The better economic outlook and the attractive valuations moved the investors to the Old Continent, rounding 30% in assets growth. In October, this figure surpassed $400 bn. A figure to take into account: Germany accounted almost $3 bn outflows.

Fixed income and money markets have been performing the worst results, with heavy outflows. Also gold summed a hard outflow in October, more than $2 bn.

In any case, US still drive the ETF markets. Not only because 70% assets are in this country, but because current risks, as a not clear Fed monetary policy (with several contradictory statements of its members) or the next debt ceiling negotiations till January, are on the view of ETF managers to decide where to put their money to obtain higher yields.